Published Dec 15, 2020
Ole Miss Preview
Oliver Baltz  •  GoMiddle
Basketball Writer
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@GoMiddle_Oliver

Ole Miss head coach Kermit Davis returns to the Murphy Center for the first time since 2018 to face his old team on Wednesday night. Davis coached at Middle Tennessee from 2002 to 2018, leaving with a 332-188 record at the program, along with three bids and two wins in the NCAA Tournament, as well as six regular season conference titles and two conference tournament championships between the Sun Belt and Conference USA.

Ole Miss is coming off a rocky 15-17 season in the second year of the Kermit era. It was a step down from the 20-13 debut season he had in Oxford. This year, the Rebels were picked to finish 9th in the SEC but have started the season 3-0, beating their opponents by an average margin of 23 points. They are led by senior guard Devontae Shuler, who is averaging 20 points a game off a red hot 54/56/91 shooting line. Devontae is also the older brother of Middle's Dontrell Shuler.

Ole Miss has yet to really find their perimeter shooting touch, making only 26% from the arc. However, where this team has reigned supreme thus far is defense. KenPom's metrics rank them 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and also rank them in the top 10 in opponent TO% and opponent 2-point%. Translating that to more basic stats, Rebels' opponents are averaging 22 turnovers per game and shooting 36% from the field.

That doesn't exactly bode well for a team still searching for their offensive identity. The Blue Raiders have shot under 35% in 3 of their 5 games, and have 57 assists to 86 turnovers on the year. Their strong showing against Murray State left optimism towards the potential, but it doesn't seem they have really built off that win like we would have hoped.

The key for MTSU right now is to establish some sort of pecking order. An attack by committee approach is nice but impractical at this early stage. Davis, Dishman, Shuler, Jordan, Sims, and Millner-Criss all have the ability to go off on any given night, but there still needs to be an established bucket-getter or two who can lead the team when they need a charge. Based on what I have listened to around the team and watched for in the games, Jordan Davis seems like the most likely candidate. Scoring 22 against Covenant Saturday night might have given him the rhythm and confidence he's been searching for this season. The team definitely needs it.

The other Blue Raider to watch for in this game is Donovan Sims. Sims is the lone Kermit Davis recruit remaining on the roster. Will he have any added motivation to shine in front of his former coach? Sims is leading the team in some key advanced stats, including eFG%, offensive rating, and box plus-minus (per Sports Reference). If MTSU wants to reach offensive efficiency and consistency they're capable of, he is going to be a big part of it.