Middle Tennessee exits the month of January in great spirits, coming off a 93-85 road win against their well known rivals, Western Kentucky. It was the first win against the WKU in nearly four years, in which the 24th nationally ranked Blue Raiders beat the Hilltoppers by 18 at the Murphy Center and clinched their second consecutive C-USA title.

As they enter February, MTSU sits atop of the east division in the C-USA's standings at 5-2, coming off a five game winning streak containing a 9.6-point average margin of victory. Despite being written off by nearly everyone (admittedly myself included), this team is making a strong notion to be taken seriously and starting to shed the perception it had over the prior three seasons. They are in the midst of creating a sense of excitement and a flurry of positive vibes the program has been missing since the last win against their rivals from 100 miles up I-24.

Middle's first two scheduled conference games were postponed due to positive COVID-19 cases within the program. That created a 15-day gap between games, which then led to some cold shooting in a 4-point loss at Rice. Two days later, the Blue Raiders were tasked in facing C-USA titan North Texas. Despite being tied at 38 with 18 minutes left, the Mean Green ended up winning relatively handily at 70-63.

Over the next two weeks, MTSU won three straight over a three-game homestand. A 70-57 win (in which the Blue Raiders led by at least 15 for over half the game) against FAU was quite impressive considering the Owls sit fifth among the conference in NET Ranking. A game later facing FIU, Middle gave up only 39 total points. That turned out to be the lowest total the program had allowed from a D1 opponent in over ten years.

In Nick McDevitt's first three years in Murfreesboro, the team had started 1-4, 0-5, and 1-4 respectively in there first five games of C-USA play. While the 3-2 start this year felt good, there was still a sense of "jury is still out" on this team. They proved they could win big at home, but it was tough to ignore a 1-6 road record. We knew they were good, but the away game struggles were setting a cap as to how good.

Well, the results of their next road trip were pretty darn good.

Middle Tennessee had gone a combined 0-8 against Marshall and Western Kentucky the past three seasons. While the Thundering Herd have had a down year, their fast pace and aggressive offense has always given MTSU fits, and 2022 was no different. However, the Blue Raiders squeaked out an 81-79 victory in Huntington despite trailing all but 52 seconds of the final 7 minutes. Two days later in Bowling Green, it was clear from the tip to the final buzzer that Middle Tennessee entered Diddle Arena with something to prove. Despite being 5.5-point underdogs, the Blue Raiders led for 95% of the game with a lead as high as 14. This win featured a number of season high offensive benchmarks: 93 total points scored, 57.4% field goal percentage, 57.7% 3-point percentage, 94.1 free throw percentage, 15 3-pointers made, and 20 assists.

They wrecked their rival at their home venue. They stepped on their throat every time they crept up and clawed back and make it close. It was a statement win to fullest extent.

It has been mentioned that part of the team's success this season can be cited to establishing an identity. That identity is a gritty defense-first mentality, using the team's length and athleticism to apply full and mid-court pressure, traps near the baselines and sidelines, and effectively switching defenders off ball-screen actions.

The half-court offense has developed into mostly 5-out looks, putting Dishman around the foul-line and pulling opposing centers out to guard his savvy and unique playmaking ability. When he subs out they have Christian Fussell, who isn't near the playmaker that Dishman is, but isn't shy to keep the defense honest with a top of the key 3. The spacing allows the guards and wings to avoid traffic around the rim when driving and cutting to the painted area.

All that said, this identity has been working pretty well so far. Against D1 opponents, Middle Tennessee ranks in the top 115 in the nation regarding defensive effective field goal percentage, and the top 40 in defensive turnover percentage. As for the offense, 2-point percentage currently stands at 53.8%, which is slightly higher than the 2017 team's 53.6% that ended up 29th in the country.

Right now, the biggest areas that could use improvement are fouling and 3-point shooting. While the fouling could be a byproduct of the aggressive defense, their opponents are averaging 23 free throw attempts since the Murray State game. That is quite a bit, and could definitely use some reduction. The team's 3-point percentage (30.6%) is floating around 300th at the moment despite being 47th in the country in 3PA/FGA ratio. The 5-out approach on offense helps facilitate the spacing despite the poor outside shooting, but replicating anything close to the results of their most recent road trip (22-46 (47.8%) against Marshall and Western Kentucky) would take offense to the next level.

1. Josh Jefferson tied a season high with 31 points and made 7 of 9 3-pointers in Bowling Green last Saturday. It was the first time a Blue Raider has had at least two 31-point outings in one season since Nick King in 2018.

Jefferson has been nothing short of a hero to this team. A mature source of confidence and on-court leadership the program hasn't had since Giddy Potts. Even on off-shooting nights, it still seems he is the rock that steadies the ups and downs of the game.

2. Here is the Conference USA top four leaders in 2-point percentage (minimum 40 attempts).

Teafale Lenard- 75.8%

Jamarion Sharp- 70.5%

Darius George- 70.4%

Cam Weston- 67.6%

3. Teafale Lenard making near 76% of his 2's is pretty insane. If you raise the minimum attempts to 62 (Lenard's total 2PA's thus far) and scale it across every conference, he ranks... 2nd in the country. Pretty not bad.

4. Now to put Weston's percentage into context: every other player in the top 10 in C-USA 2P% with a minimum of 40 attempts is 6'7 or taller (worth reminding everyone that Jamarion Sharp is 7'5). Weston is 6'3. Only one player in the country at 6'3 or shorter shoots a better percentage on their 2's that has as many attempts as Weston (74).

5. Lenard and Weston are quite the analytic darlings as well. Lenard ranks fourth in C-USA in block percentage (100 minutes played minimum). Weston ranks third in steal percentage. Some order of Jefferson, Lenard, and Weston are top three in the rotation in all of the following advanced stat categories: player efficiency rating, offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, win shares per 40 minutes, box plus/minus... you get the picture. Lenard and Weston's impact is clear, and are quite arguably the best bench duo in Conference USA.

6. Hometown hero Donovan Sims showed the Hilltoppers just how comfortable he feels in the 100 Miles of Hate rivalry at this point, finishing with 22 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and a block. The Mayor of Murfreesboro has been heating up lately, averaging 17 ppg on 57/43/83 shooting splits in the last four games. It has been a long road of ups and downs for the fifth year local product. It would be great to see him continue to play his best ball as he enters the homestretch of his final season.

7. Eli Lawrence's breakout campaign has hit a bit of snag offensively, but defensively he remains very impressive. Marshall's Taevion Kinsey, the conference's leading scorer, finished 30% from the field against MT. Lawrence was often tasked as the primary defender and did a terrific job making Kinsey work for his shots, which included locking him down with 30 seconds left in a one possession game. Make it a point to zone in on Lawrence during defensive possessions every now and then, and you will see a potential all-conference defender.

8. Christian Fussell continues to earn more minutes at the backup 5 spot. The rebounding has been good. The rim protection has been solid. The perimeter shooting is getting there. His impact has been encouraging but also very necessary. Still a raw prospect overall but he has filled in well with the absence of Jared Coleman-Jones.

Eleven games remain in Middle Tennessee's conference season. Besides UAB in Birmingham on Saturday, MTSU does not have another opponent that currently outranks them in NET Ranking (MT is currently 116th in the country).They are a beneficiary of a relatively light conference schedule, playing only two games between the three C-USA goliaths (LA Tech, North Texas, and UAB).

The top two teams in each division of Conference USA will get double-byes in the conference tournament. Enlightened to me by @BlueRaiderStats (a must follow on twitter if you aren't already), there is a huge difference between 1st place east division (or 1E) seed and the 2nd place seed for the following reason:

LA Tech, North Texas, and UAB, as implied before, are the clear top tier of C-USA this season. All being in the west division, they will likely finish in some order of 1W, 2W, and 3W. Per the bracket below, the 2E seed will possibly play the 3W in the quarter finals and the 1W in the semis. Conversely, the 1E seed will possibly play the 4W and the 2W. For now, playing one of those three in the top tier seems like a much better option than playing two.

This five game winning streak is going to put the league on notice, especially considering how some of the wins have been in emphatic fashion. Opposing coaches are going to remind their players what Middle has done against teams like FAU and Western Kentucky. They will make sure their players know that this isn't the Middle Tennessee from 2019 to 2021. As a result, the Blue Raiders are going to have to adjust their mentality, and it is not going to be as simple as flipping a switch. Some players and teams thrive at being the underdog and being doubted. Being favored and being touted then getting your opponents' best effort on a consistent basis requires a different mentality. It requires a different type of preparation, a different attention to detail, a different level of persistence and determination. The key for Middle Tennessee over these next 11 games is how well they will handle no longer being looked over.

(All stats provided via NCAA.com, KenPom.com, and Sports-Reference.com/CBB)