Published Dec 1, 2021
Men's Basketball November Recap
Oliver Baltz  •  GoMiddle
Basketball Writer
Twitter
@GoMiddle_Oliver

Middle Tennessee exits the month of November with a 6-1 record. The schedule difficulty was on the lighter side, but given the level of expectations and anticipation, 6-1 is close to an ideal start. All you can ask of them is to beat the teams they play, and Blue Raiders have done so comfortably for the most part with five of their six victories being won by double digits.

So what has happened to give the McDevitt era its best start since its inception?


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A Defensive Identity

In the last three seasons, it seems MTSU's roster was more a collection of talent rather than a gathering of parts that fit a long-term system or vision. Maybe that was by design, maybe that was due to constant roster turnover and unfortunate circumstances. Either way, an identity might have finally been established.

In the highlight of the month, MTSU won the Mayan division in the Cancun Challenge, defeating Rider 60-54 and Mercer 82-58. If you couldn't tell by the final scores, they earned it with lockdown defense.

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In five of their seven contests, Blue Raiders have posted a DRtg (defensive rating) under 80, per Sports Reference. In the last three seasons (86 games), they have only had 10 such outputs.

Per KenPom (which does not account for games with non-D1 opponents), MTSU's opponent turnover rate ranks 24th in the country. Also per the athletic department's website, Middle is averaging 25 points off turnovers per game (they averaged 14 the last three seasons).

It is clear that the big picture strategy this year is to force turnovers (as well as bad shots) with the roster's quality length and athleticism, which at times can create fastbreak advantages on offense. It is not a coincidence that there are only three rotation players under 6'5.

Again, some of these stats will come back to earth when the strength of schedule kicks up. That said, they are at a pretty impressive level right now, which provides optimism they should remain at least above average when that time comes.


Balanced Attack

While Josh Jefferson and Eli Lawrence have put together some impressive scoring performances so far, the entire offensive has been very much a joint effort.


-Seven players on the team are averaging between 17 and 25 minutes a game

-Eight players are averaging between 6.8 and 11.4 points a game

-10 of the 12 players who have received minutes this season have scored at least 11 points in at least one of the seven games

-Bench players have accounted for 45% of the total points scored this season


Jefferson is the only player to score 20 in a game this year and is the best bet to end up leading the team in points given his sharp shooting ability. However, it is encouraging to have seen some scoring potential throughout the roster so far.


Scoring Droughts Are Still A Concern

Last season, MTSU had some notorious stretches where the offense was grossly anemic. I know you probably believe me but let me display just how anemic we are talking here.

Alright, you probably get the picture. But just to be sure let's add one more for good measure (plus who doesn't love a snarky passive aggressive GIF).

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Back to the point. In their first month, the Blue Raiders had:


-A 7 minute stretch scoring two points against Winthrop

-Two separate 4 minute field goal droughts against Stephen F. Austin in the first half

-A 6 minute stretch scoring three points against Rider


Now here are the caveats: they went 2-1 in those three games; none of those three instances even technically qualifies as a scoring drought; every team in the country has scoring droughts at some point; there is a good chance that if the defense stays this strong that offense will be easier to come by.

All that said, there is concern that these long windows without field goals or with only a couple points is potential foreshadowing for more offensive struggles to come. A competent half court offense is essential in college basketball. Blue Raiders cannot fall short in that category again this season.


Player Notes

1. Eli Lawrence may be at the start of a breakout season. The junior forward currently leads the team in points (11.4 per game), rebounds (4.3), steals (1.7), 3-pointers (1.7), and DRtg (79.1).

But looking past the numbers, something stood out to me in the Mercer game. The Bears had pulled their deficit within 10 (for the first time the entire second half) on a 11-4 run with seven minutes left in the game. Momentum was clearly on Mercer's side for the first time in a while. The next two possessions, Lawrence pulls up and hits two unassisted 3-pointers to push the lead back to 16. That momentum vanished near instantly, and the margin was never closer than 16 for the remainder of the game..

Right then and there, it was clear that Lawrence wasn't the same player we've seen the last two seasons, exhibiting confidence and leadership qualities that are very encouraging for the young man's potential. The Mayan division MVP could be on course for a big year.

2. Teafale Lenard Jr. has been cited as the second highest rated high school recruit in the class of 2021 that landed at a C-USA school. Well, it has been is pretty clear as to why. The freshman's combination of length and athleticism is near ideal for a forward at the college level. He is a superb rebounder and solid shot blocker that brings a high level of energy (that can occasionally gets under the skin of his opponents). Like all freshman, he has some wrinkles that need to be ironed out, but there is a ton of upside that can be realized here.

3. Donovan Sims and DeAndre Dishman look like the clear leaders of the team. It makes sense considering they are the only players that were on McDevitt's first team in Murfreesboro (Dishman was sitting out due to transfer rules).

4. There is a night and day difference in how aggressive Sims has been looking for his shot compared to last year, currently ranking first on the team in FGAs. His shooting percentages have been poor so far, but I do not see that sustaining. He is generating good looks, and his jumper has always been pure from a form perspective.

5. Dishman is second on the team in FG% and third on the team in assists. There are some sets where he has operated with the ball at the top of the key or the high block and orchestrates the offense. That drags the opposing center up and allows backdoor cuts galore. Tons of fun to watch. His 12/11/3/1/1 line versus Mercer was a big part of why they won by 24.

6. I cannot complete this article without mentioning Camryn Weston. A dazzling 6'3 guard who offers quick twitch, tough takes, stout defense, and contagious confidence. He is shooting an absurd 67% of his 2-point attempts and leads the team in total assists despite being seventh in total minutes. He can play out of control at times (had 6 turnovers in the loss to Stephen F. Austin) and I still have concerns on his 3-point shooting ability based on his time at Southeastern CC. That said, the playmaking ability is undeniable and makes him another promising piece going forward.

7. Let's end on Justin Bufford, possibly my favorite player on the team. When looking at his year at Shelton State CC, I was impressed by his production and efficiency scoring the ball. However, in his seven games at Middle I have enjoyed watching all the little things he does: defending, rebounding, cutting, making the right play when he gets a touch. Fun player to watch off-ball.


What Lies Ahead

As mentioned several times now, MTSU has had a fortunate line of opponents so far; ESPN currently ranks them 341st in the country on strength of schedule. That ranking should change come the end of December.

A home-and-home series against UT Martin (12/1 and 12/11) should be manageable, as should a home game against Coastal Carolina (12/19). However, there are three road games at Murray State (12/4), Ole Miss (12/15), and Chattanooga (12/22), that all will be challenging at the very least. These games should inform us just how legit this hot start in November was.

In whatever order, anything less than a 4-2 December record (not including the C-USA opener vs UTSA on 12/30) will be disappointing. Maybe that is unfair when you consider how the last few years have gone, but I still have the expectation for Middle Tennessee to maintain the strong brand it built throughout most of the 2010's. I am not expecting a 31-6 and round of 32 season, but I am expecting a respectable mid major program that consistently competes with, and sometimes defeats, high majors and other mid major programs with similar stature. The double digit victories against Winthrop and Mercer have reinforced those expectations to some extent.

If this team can enter conference play at 10-3, it would represent a very positive step forward for a McDevitt era that is in desperate need of one.