Week 12 Pick 'Em

Middle Tennessee is riding high right now. Four wins in a row and the offense seems to be absolutely clicking. The defense has been making plays and the Blue Raiders should be bowl bound again this year.

Remember the good times over the last month as MT travels to Kentucky this week. Celebrate what has been done, because there will be nothing to celebrate on that field Saturday.

Much of this is the same old story with MT and SEC games. Oversized and outmatched at just about every position. But, there’s much more than that this weekend. Middle had a better chance of beating Georgia than they do of beating the Wildcats. Not because Kentucky is a better football team than the Bulldogs, but the stars have aligned to MTSU’s demise.

Kentucky has lost two straight now, three overall, and yet their best season since 1984 (9 wins) is still within reach. Losing to Georgia is understandable, but losing to the Volunteers is going to leave a bitter taste in their mouth and they’ll come out playing fired up and angry. They will make a statement to close out the year.

Kentucky has a top 20 defense and I think giving the Blue Raiders 14 may be too generous of me. The key cog in that defense is Josh Allen who is tied for the most sacks in the nation, a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski (best defensive player), and was just named a semifinalist for the Walter Camp Player of the Year award. Holy smokes.

It’s just a terrible spot for the Blue Raiders to be in.

Kentucky rolls in this one.

I've gone back and forth on this game in my head all season long. When we did our season outlook predictions, I said I was on the fence about this game. And to be frank, nothing has really changed there.

Middle Tennessee is riding high right now while Kentucky is in virtual despair having dropped two straight. And by the way, they have their in-state showdown versus Louisville on the horizon as well. Could the Blue Raiders catch the Wildcats looking ahead a bit here?

All signs point to an upset to me - but I just can't bring myself to make an official call on this one.

The biggest reasons are obvious. Kentucky has an absolute stacked defense to put in front of the Blue Raiders, and a world class running back who will be hungry to avenge a poor outing last week.

While MT's offense has hit its stride of late, they are about to run into a rather large juggernaut that is going to give them a lot of problems. Protecting QB Brent Stockstill this week will be a chore. MT's inconsistency in pass protection and just from an overall production standpoint this year makes me hesitant to think they can put enough points on the board to counter Kentucky, who will assuredly run their bell cow Benny Snell all day long against a Blue Raider defense that has been susceptible against the run this year.

That's where this game comes down for me, and I just can't get over those two areas enough to give Middle the nod here.

All that being said, I think the game is going to be close. Real close. In fact, I see a scenario where Middle is driving with a chance to win this game, but in the end, the Wildcats will prevail.

Middle Tennessee State is standing tall at 7-3 overall and 6-1 in Conference USA play right now and on Saturday they will square off with the Kentucky Wildcats. The Cats also boast an overall record of 7-3, but have stubbed their toe in back-to-back weeks here.

There are truly two signs of the coin when it pertains to the game. You could make the argument that UK will be amped up to avenge their embarrassing loss to Tennessee last week. You could also make the argument that Tennessee beat Kentucky twice. In other words, Kentucky will be demoralized and crushed from last week, and that will bleed over and carry over into the Middle Tennessee State game.

I tend to think that Kentucky will show up and bring their lunch pail. The question is, can MT match Kentucky’s intensity? Look for UK to establish running back Benny Snell Jr early and often. Snell was held in check against Tennessee, and I think that UK will look to force feed Snell and get him going. MT will likely sell out to stop the run and make quarterback Terry Wilson beat them with his arm. Wilson can be inconsistent and erratic, so MT’s best hope is to sell out to stop Snell and see what Wilson can do.

I think MT will have success early in the ballgame, but ultimately, Kentucky will impose their will. Look for the Wildcats to pull away later in the contest.

Winners of four straight, the Blue Raiders head north to face another SEC opponent in Kentucky. Meanwhile, Kentucky, fresh off a loss to Tennessee, will look to release its frustration out on Middle Tennessee. It will be the Blue Raiders’ third matchup against a SEC opponent this season and, much like the games against Vanderbilt and Georgia, Middle Tennessee will lose.

The key, in my opinion, is keeping Brent Stockstill upright. He’s going to take more than his fair share of hits, but if Middle Tennessee hopes to turn the season finale against UAB into a playoff game for the conference championship, then they will need a healthy Brent Stockstill. That will be a struggle if Kentucky is in the backfield all day Saturday, which I think they will be.

Defensively, the message is simple: stop Benny Snell. And I’m not sure the Blue Raiders will be able to slow him down enough to stay in the game.

In the end, Kentucky wins by a finale score of 41-10.

So, who had MTSU sitting at 7-3 at this point in the year? Certainly, not I. However, this will be a tough test for the Blue Raiders in Kentucky. Yes, I know, UK is coming off a bad loss to Tennessee. However, I like the Wildcats' chances of rebounding this week.

MTSU's three losses this season have come to formidable opponents in Vanderbilt, Georgia and FIU. That being said, if MTSU can't beat Vanderbilt or FIU, then I don't see them having much of a chance upsetting the Cats.

The offense is averaging 30 points per game, but UK is holding opponents to just 16 points per, so something's got to give. I think Brent Stockstill has himself a day, numbers-wise, but I don't think the points will be there. I expect UK to roll in this one