Published Feb 5, 2025
We're Halfway There
Oliver Baltz  •  GoMiddle
Basketball Writer
Twitter
@GoMiddle_Oliver

We have officially reached the halfway point of the conference season within Conference USA. Every team has played every team once and only once in last five weeks. Every team will play every team one more time in the next five weeks (while alternating the home/away venue).

Without the time and patience to dig into and uncover specific and extensive topics, here is a list of notes and nuggets related to Middle Tennessee's C-USA season thus far.

1. The Blue Raiders currently rank second in the conference standings with a 6-3 record. Only Jacksonville State sits ahead at 7-2. After those two... six of the remaining eight teams are tied for 3rd with a 5-4 record. It was expected entering January, but this conference has featured a level of top-heavy parity we have not seen in some time.

2. Is the next edition of Florida Atlantic's 2023 final four team among this group? Probably not, but given the mass exodus of teams leaving to the AAC that summer and the results that followed (falling from 10th in the 2023 KenPom conference ratings to 15th in 2024), Conference USA has bounced back as one of the most respected mid-major conferences in college basketball (currently ranking ninth in KenPom conference ratings; the highest its been since 2011).

3. Back to Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders might have found themselves at the very top of the table if it wasn't for a few injuries. Senior center Essam Mostafa suffered a setback last week and missed the New Mexico State game with a lower body injury. The Blue Raiders ended up losing 61-57 in what was their worst scoring output of the season. It is very possible this team is one game better if the second leading scoring center in C-USA had been healthy enough to play.

4. Sticking to injuries, remember Kamari Lands? We have not seen the junior wing/forward since his impressive 13-point performance in Knoxville two days before Christmas. Lands exited non-conference play as the Blue Raiders' fourth leading scorer, second in 3-pointers, third in assists, and fourth in blocks. He has a combination of size and skill that is unique to the roster, as he is the only true stretch forward option the Raiders have, an essential element that every great offense needs. His upside has always been a part of the equation in what could make MTSU's offense outstanding, but this team deserves a ton of credit and confidence given they currently stand as KenPom's second best offensive team in C-USA thus far, all without their starting power forward.

When will his return be? Still TBD. The injury did originally occur against Tennessee. Lands was able to finish the game but noticed lower body discomfort afterwards and has been held out since. Lately, he is getting better and practicing more. From my understanding, there has never been a concern that this would be a season-ending type injury, but I do have a sense the recovery process has taken longer than originally expected.

Implementing Lands back into a rotation will not be an easy task. Nine games over five weeks is not a short time in terms of building new chemistry and adjusting to Lands' absence. There will almost certainly be an adjustment period as he reacclimates himself in the rotation. How head coach Nick McDevitt chooses to disperse his minutes will be intriguing.

5. Forward Torey Alston has earned some stickers on his proverbial football helmet starting in Lands' place. The redshirt freshman is an absolute menace defensively, tied for first on the team in total blocks with Chris Loofe during league play (both top 11 in blocks per game within the conference) as well as second in defensive rating.

6. Jestin Porter currently sits at second in the conference in points, free-throw percentage, and 3-point field goals made, as well as third in 3-point percentage. The senior guard has been doing some pretty special things lately in a Blue Raider uniform.

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Porter is certainly in the mix for C-USA POTY but it will not be an easy feat. Player of the year awards traditionally have a bias towards rebounding when the points are relative, and with Louisiana Tech's Daniel Batcho being the the preseason pick and being top 5 in both categories, he will be a tough frog to leap. That said, Porter is one of the five players who has won C-USA player of the week since league play started. No one has earned the award more than once, and Batcho has yet to achieve it thus far. The race is still wide open in a sense.

7. Essam Mostafa has also earned quite a bit of praise for his play, currently 10th in the conference in points per game, as well as second in rebounds per game and field goal percentage. He is first in offensive rebounds per game and tied for first in double-doubles. On the season, Mostafa has 10 double-doubles and needs just two more to crack the top 10 of the Blue Raider records books for most in a season.

Another interesting stat is Mostafa currently ranking 12th in C-USA steals per game. This is not typical for a 6'9, 250lb player. For reference, nine of the top 12 are 6'5 or shorter, and the next biggest player on the list is 6'7 215lb Tyrone Marshall from Western Kentucky.

8. Mostafa also ranks eighth in blocks per game. As mentioned before, Torey Alston and Chris Loofe are tied at 11th. Justin Bufford is 12th. This means one third of the top 12 in C-USA blocks are Blue Raiders. In terms of overall team blocks, Middle Tennessee ranks 2nd behind Kennesaw State.

9. Jlynn Counter ranks fifth in C-USA in assists. Cam Weston is in a three-way tie for sixth. Middle Tennessee and Liberty are the only teams in the conference with two players in the top eight.

10. Enough fun with player ranks and lets get to the bottom line. Middle Tennessee's impressive scoring balance is a major reason for optimism that should encourage fans of this team's potential. The Blue Raiders are the only team in the conference with four players that each have played 400 minutes this season and are scoring more than 24 points per 100 possessions.

Also consider the explosive scoring performances that several different players have had so far. Cam Weston had 30 points against Cal Baptist and then 24 against the Volunteers the following week. Jestin Porter had a stretch 27+ points in three out of four games. Jlynn Counter had a 22-point eruption in the second half against Belmont and 21-points in Saturday's win against UTEP.

And then you have Essam Mostafa, which brings us to my next point. Mostafa is shooting 48-70 (68%) on Bart Torvik's "close 2s" metric. Daniel Batcho at 48-69 (69%) is the only other player in C-USA close to this level of volume and efficiency (Liberty's Zach Cleveland at 35-64 (54%) is close but still a solid tier below). Its not just the fact that the Blue Raiders have four guys that can explode for 20 points in any given game, but they may have C-USA's best balance in terms of players who can do it in the paint and on the perimeter. Middle Tennessee is 4th in both 2p% and 3p% in conference play.

Having this sort of scoring balance is EXACTLY what you need in the single-elimination tournaments that March is so famous for. And reminder, this is all without Kamari Lands, who can unlock a whole other level of scoring prowess and improve this offense from good to great.

11. The team stats and analytics point out that this Middle Tennessee team is no slouch on the other side of the ball either. The Blue Raiders currently rank fourth in C-USA on KenPom's defensive efficiency metrics. They are third in defensive turnover percentage (a near staple of Nick McDevitt-coached teams) as well as second in foul rate.

However, the team stats and analytics do expose three main weakness for this MTSU team.

12. Free throw percentage is the most glaring issue for Middle Tennessee up to this point. Blue Raiders are 66.2% at the stripe on the season (63.2% in league play). That is the worst efficiency the program has had since the 2016 season. Not the worst company in the world, but ironically the 2016 Blue Raiders were the last C-USA tournament champion with a FT% that poor. Safe to say it is not typical and needs to improve for this team to reach their goals.

13. Defensive rebounding percentage currently ranking 9th in C-USA play. The whole season has been an up-and-down affair in regarding rebounding. In their first seven D1 games, the Blue Raiders allowed only 42 total offensive rebounds. Then they play UAB and Belmont back-to-back and give up 35 total in just those games, and have given up 90 in their nine C-USA matches.

This may be a "missing Kamari Lands" related issue as well. You would think with Mostafa and Alston that rebounding would be a strength, but you also have to consider McDevitt is using a lot more three-guard lineups with Lands out due to Bufford-Alston lineups not providing enough offensive spacing.

Regardless, this weakness has not directly had a correlation with wins and losses (yet). Blue Raiders are 11-4 when their opponent grabs 8 or more ORebs and 7-4 when they are outrebounded on the offensive glass. Not a concern yet, but worth keeping an eye on it.

14. Likely the least fixable issue due to personnel, the Raiders' achilles heal this season has been teams that excel in ball movement and assist rate (assist rate is portion of field goals made that come off an assist). Middle Tennessee is 3-5 against teams in the top 150 nationally in assist rate (53% or greater). They are also 0-4 in the top 50 (58% or greater). Among their two losses outside of the top 150 was against Murray State, who some may remember put on a ball movement clinic against the Blue Raider defense, executing 19 assists on 32 made field goals (59%). While Nick McDevitt has succeeded in coaching up this team defensively despite its physical limitations, this group simply does not have enough athleticism to chase around teams with surgical ball movement. The good news? Five of the nine opposing C-USA teams are in the bottom 100 in assist rate, and only two are in the top 150 (Liberty and Louisiana Tech).

15. Blue Raiders have a good team. Maybe even a very good team. Throughout the preseason and early season I had speculated that the staff's approach to the portal in 2024 signaled a potential philosophy change, pivoting from an emphasis in versatility and athleticism to a more conventional style rotation. The returns on that theory couldn't have become more accurate. This Middle Tennessee team has well defined roles that the players have bought into: a true point guard, a true scoring guard, a combo guard, a low-post threat, rim protector, stretch forward, glue-guy, a dirty work forward, a spot-up shooter, etc etc etc...

As there were signs 10 months ago that this roster was well constructed, we've seen signs these last five weeks that this Blue Raider team is among the best in their conference this season, and can compete for a conference regular season championship, a conference tournament championship, and maybe even beyond...