Middle Tennessee exits their non-conference season at 8-4. This team has become no stranger to a lopsided result, as only one of the twelve final scores has contained a differential of two possessions or less. Said another way: the average margin of victory in the eight wins is nearly 17 points. Average margin of defeat in the four losses? 12 points.

Up-and-down results have obviously derived from up-and-down play. While this may concern some, Middle was just 9-4 at this stage last year before starting a run of winning 13 of their following 16 contests. Conference play is king within the mid and low major realm, so there is nothing wrong with being in the middle of working out kinks at this checkpoint.

We will get to the kinks later, but first let's take a deep dive into what Middle Tennessee has done well statistically so far.

Bull Market for STOCKS- Ever since last season, Middle Tennessee has made a living using its length and athleticism on the defensive end to rack up steals and blocks (hence "stocks"). Last year they were only one of 17 teams ranked in the top 50 in the country in both Steal% (48th) and Block% (50th).

With a little over a third of the way through this season, the Blue Raiders are thriving even more so in these departments, ranking 35th in Steal% and 5th in Block%. Middle is one of just nine schools that rank in the top 35 of each category, and is the only program of these nine that is not in a high-major conference.

Leading the way here is Teafale Lenard, who is currently the only player in all of D1 college basketball averaging over 2 blocks AND 1.5 steals per game, per Sports Reference. If he maintains these averages for the full season, he will be the first player to meet this criterion since the 2019-2020 season.

Even considering Lenard's prominence, Middle Tennessee's success in stocks is a legitimate group effort. There are currently 75 players in CBB that have both Steal% AND Block% greater than 3%. MTSU is the only team in the country with four players (Lenard, Dishman, King, and Bufford) on this list of 75.

When peeking at the program's history, stocks are at an all-time high. Their 8.6 steals a game this season is the Raiders' best mark since 2011. Their 5 blocks a game so far is unprecedented, with the current record being 4.8 BPG from the 1990-91 season.

Power of Possessions- The Blue Raiders have done well these first 12 games creating more possessions by snagging rebounds and forcing turnovers. Currently, they are 85th in Offensive Rebound % (3rd in C-USA) and 14th in Defensive Turnover % (1st in C-USA). Middle is averaging nearly four more offensive rebounds and three fewer turnovers than their opponents, and as a result are scoring 12 more points per game between second chance points and points off turnovers. 19.2 points off turnovers per game is the highest it has been in the McDevitt era.

Paint Efficiency- For the second straight year, MTSU ranks in the top 75 nationally in 2-point percentage. They are shooting 64% on their close twos and outscoring opponents in the paint by nearly 13 points a game. Middle has five players with at least 20 attempts shooting 58% or better at the rim. Only FIU has more among C-USA teams.

This is in part due to the offensive rebounding prowess, but Middle's offensive philosophy deserves praise: putting the 5-man at the high block or the top of the key dragging opposing centers from the rim, which creates spacing and allows players to attack the rim on a less contested basis. Per Bart Torvik, 44.6% of MTSU's field goal attempts are close twos. That is 21st in the country and leads all of C-USA.

Raiders of the Lost (3-point) Arc- In their four losses, the Blue Raiders have been outscored 105 to 51 from behind the arc. Per game, that averages out to about 26-13, and perhaps uncoincidentally is very close to the average margin of their four defeats, which again is 12 points a loss.

Everyone knew the perimeter shooting may take a dip this season considering graduates Josh Jefferson and Donovan Sims accounted for 126 of the 302 made 3's last year. And while it needs to improve (currently ranking 289th), I don't believe the improvement has to be gargantuan for this team to reach its peak. Also worth mentioning that in the last three games the team has shot 35.6% from 3, as opposed to just 28.6% in the first 9 games. There are reasons for optimism that this struggle is salvageable on the offensive side.

The struggle in perimeter defense on the other hand is much more concerning. Last season the Blue Raiders were 2nd in C-USA and 48th in the country in 3p% defense at 31%. At the moment, opponents are shooting 38% from 3 on the year, ranking Middle in the bottom 25 in CBB. This is pretty peculiar considering Sims and Jefferson (who weren't bad defenders but) are being replaced with longer and more athletic players with an archetype more suited for defense.

To their defense, MTSU has had its fair share of sharpshooting opponents, as half of the 10 D1 teams they've faced rank in the country's 80th percentile or better in 3-point percentage. Another factor is Middle's increasingly aggressive nature in going for steals and forcing turnovers could be leaving them more vulnerable to uncontested shots.

Whatever the reason may be, this is the number one item Middle Tennessee needs to resolve as they enter league play. They are built for the defense to be their calling card, and while their success in steals and blocks is a major asset, they cannot continue to lose the 3-point phase of the game to this magnitude.

Stripe Struggles- The free-throw line has been a backbreaker at certain points throughout the early season. Middle Tennessee is only making 65% of their attempts, "good" to land in D1 ball's tenth percentile and 10th of the 11 C-USA members.

Much like the results, the issues are more volatile than they are constant. Of their 12 games, there have been four of which the Blue Raiders shot worse than 56% from the line. However, they have had five games shooting better than 75%. While this provides encouragement, there isn't a more frustrating way to leave points on the board, and you could argue the Raiders lost the Winthrop (15 of 29; lost by 8) and St. Bonaventure (8 of 18; lost by 7) games mainly due to their inaccuracies at the stripe.

Sluggish Starts- Middle has had a halftime deficit in only 3 of the 12 games so far. Not bad at all. The problem is the average of those three first half scores is 43-30. Analyzing why and the answers lie within the struggles above: MTSU shot 6-15 (40%) from the line in the 1H against Winthrop, and let Missouri State and Chattanooga shoot 8-14 (57%) and 8-13 (62%) from 3 respectively in the first half of their games.

Raiders are 0-3 when they trail in the first 20 minutes, 8-1 when they lead. Addressing their shooting and defensive woes is essential, but the underlying issue may be related to some level of preparedness.

KenPom ranks Middle Tennessee's non-conference strength of schedule 2nd in C-USA, only behind North Texas. In fact, these are the only two in C-USA that the database has ranked in the top half in the country in terms of NCSOS. Middle hasn't played any teams in the KenPom top 100, but 8 of their 12 opponents are currently ranked between 125 and 175, suggesting that they have been tested by multiple reputable opponents.

All that said, the lack of experience against the Goliaths could hold them back in league play. We knew the top of Conference USA this season was the best it has been in years. UAB and North Texas were known commodities and have been as good as advertised, but now we must account for FAU, who stands 11-1 and has the conference's best win of the season, beating the Florida Gators in Gainesville. Charlotte has also emerged as a legitimate force in the league.

Middle entered the season not seen as one of the C-USA favorites, but good enough to beat anyone, and the potential to build on last season's 26-win season. 12 games in, I believe that remains the same. Their strengths are apparent and sustainable. Their shooting has been a concern at times, but there is evidence to suggest it can and will improve. The big questions I have are:

1) Can the perimeter defense can return to the excellent form it was at last year?
2) Can they overcome sluggish starts, or at least stop the bleeding at an earlier stage?