The Home Stretch
You know the saying "You are what your record is." While this rings true, there are multiple ways to break down and dissect MTSU's 2022 campaign through eight ball games.
As with any Rick Stockstill coached team, there has been no shortage of drama and action. There has been highs and lows, peaks and valleys. In other words, it has been a roller coaster ride.
MT had one of those traditional first game lackadaisical efforts, getting their doors blown off by the Dukes of James Madison. The Dukes are stout but there is no excuse to get shellacked 44-7 out of the gate.
The ensuing three games offered some hope and promise. They took it to Colorado State on the road and Tennessee State at Floyd. Then there was the shocker. The Blue Raiders throttled a then ranked Miami team on the road in Coral Gables. It was not one of those fluke last second deals. MT won decisively 45-31.
So, there was a peak...followed by a lull and a valley. MT lost to UTSA at home, UAB on the road and rival WKU at home.
Last week MT did their best to quiet the skeptics and the doubters, beating UTEP 24-13, earning the first Conference USA victory this season.
Will MT finish the 2022 season with a peak? We shall see.
The final leg of the season
Next up on the docket is a road contest versus Louisiana Tech. MT should be favored and they are. The Blue Raiders are currently two and a half point favorites. Louisiana Tech is an abysmal 2-6 overall, and like MT, have a 1-3 record in league play. ESPN's FPI system gives MT a 54 percent chance of earning the win.
After that Is a game inside the confines of Floyd Stadium. MT will square off with the team that is in bottom cellar of Conference USA. That is Charlotte. The 49ers are 1-4 in conference play and 2-7 overall. ESPN gives MT a 82.3 percent chance of winning.
That leaves Florida Atlantic at home and a road finale against FIU.
The Owls of Florida Atlantic are 2-3 in conference and 4-6 overall. ESPN gives MT a 52.7 percent chance of winning that game. FIU is currently 2-2 in CUSA play and 4-4 overall. ESPN gives MTSU a 82.3 percent chance of winning that game.
Implications
Cover your eyes MTSU fans, but I think this team is zeroing in on a 6-6 season, 7-5 with some fortunate bounces and some breaks. Raise your hand if you have seen this narrative played out in the past.
I think we can all agree that competing for a conference championship is not in the cards this season. Considering the Blue Raiders are sitting at 1-3 in CUSA play, they would have to win out and receive some major breaks to even be in contention late in the season.
There has been plenty of discussion and fodder when it comes to this type of season that seems to be on loop and replay year in and year out. Each year there has been promise mixed in with despair. The team will provide hope only to pull the rug out from underneath the fanbase on route to a .500 finish. Wise fans didn't fall for the okie doke this season, even after the Miami victory. The Miami win was massive, there is no denying that, but it is a head scratcher why they couldn't build off that rather than losing three consecutive games.
Again though, I think to some degree, redemption can be salvaged in the eyes of some If, If If, the Blue Raiders end up winning out and finishing 8-4.
In the end I think it will be rinse and repeat. I'm calling for some success down the stretch, with MT winding up 6-6 or 7-5.