Road Work Ahead
Middle Tennessee has officially clinched a first-round bye at the Conference USA tournament after defeating Louisiana Tech Saturday night, 63-49. This win capped off quite a successful three-game homestand, starting with the program's first ever regular-season win against a ranked team in FAU, and continued with pulling off what was (at the time) the country's largest comeback of the season against FIU.
Home is definitely where the heart is with this group, as they are 27-2 in the last two seasons in the Glass House. Albeit there are a few more games to be played around the country, Middle Tennessee right now ranks 12th among the 363 D1 teams in home winning percentage over that span.
On the road... well that's a different story. MTSU is 3-9 in away games this season and 2-6 in C-USA play, which is tied for third worst in the conference. The numbers suggest the issues are almost exclusively on the defensive side, as Blue Raider opponents are scoring 16 more points a game on the road compared to home, shooting 7% better from the field, 9% better from 3, and almost seven more free throw attempts per game.
"Defense should travel." coach Nick McDevitt said after their win against Louisiana Tech. "You have to be able to have a more concentrated effort defensively, particularly when you're going into somebody else's home territory. That's where they shoot, where they practice."
The Blue Raiders have gained palpable positive momentum in their last two weeks at the Murphy Center, but the disparity between home and away outcomes is a cause for concern that the team may be too reliant on the comfort of their home-court advantage. Much of that concern would evaporate with strong showings in their last two games of the regular season: at North Texas and at UTEP.
"We're just trying to get ready for Frisco," said junior wing Elias King. "We feel like these two wins, going down to Texas and going against a good North Texas and UTEP team, if we pull them off we will definitely be ready."
And let's be clear: we as fans should not expect Middle Tennessee to go into the Super Pit Thursday evening and defeat North Texas. There is a strong argument that the Mean Green have been the best and most consistent team in the conference over the last four years. They even had an outside shot at the bubble and being considered as an at-large team in the NCAA tournament before their loss to Charlotte last Thursday. That said, Middle needs to show they belong in this game. The Blue Raiders lost on the road to the other two teams ahead of them in the C-USA standings (FAU and UAB) by a combined 41 points. MTSU's matchup in Denton this Thursday needs to at worst reminisce their neck-and-neck bout with North Texas at the Murphy Center (hopefully besides the 14-point second-half part).
Conversely, a convincing win against the UT- El Paso Miners is certainly expected in order to prove progress. Of Middle Tennessee's nine away losses, four have been to teams that currently sit below .500. The Miners are 14-16 on the season and have lost 8 of their last 10. The Raiders need to beat teams that they are clearly better than if we want to be realistic in buying the idea that they are playing their best ball at the right time.
The conference tournament is nearly set in ink for Middle Tennessee's sake. Barring them winning out and UAB losing to Charlotte, MTSU will be the 4-seed in the tournament bracket and likely face Charlotte (with an outside chance of Rice) in their first game. On paper, there is very little to lose in either of these last two games, but competing in and even winning both could push them closer to the confidence level that is much needed for them to make a run in March.