Northern Classic Recap

There was plenty to be learned in Blue Raiders' trip to Montreal for the Northern Classic holiday tournament. Leading up to this event, Middle Tennessee was 2-2 with two convincing wins at home and two sluggish losses on the road. Dismantling Rice by nearly 40 was reassuring after seeing the Blue Raiders trail by 19 at Winthrop three days prior (albeit they made a comeback attempt and eventually lost by 8). But four days later came a 24-point blowout loss at Missouri State, and we were back to wondering what kind of season this could be. Could they still be 26-11 good? Could they be 8-23 bad?

While obviously there is still much of the story to be written, the results from the Nothern Classic suggest it could be more of the former, and at the very least somewhere in the middle. Middle Tennessee defeated Hofstra and Stephen F. Austin handily on consecutive nights by a combined 22 points, then finished the tournament 3-0 with a 1-point win against Montana State. Middle was the only team of the six participants (the others being Quinnipiac and UNCG) that finished undefeated in the event.

So of the plenty to be learned, here is what stood out most to me...

DeAndre Dishman is the engine.

Dish led the team in points over the three games with a total of 50 on 19-34 shooting (56%), and was the only Blue Raider to reach over 10 points in every contest. He also finished t-third in total rebounds, second in assists, t-third in steals, and third in blocks. He is the engine that gives the Blue Raiders their floor. His versatile ability and unique tools at the center position are the foundation of Middle Tennessee's identity. While his contributions can seem quiet sometimes, there isn't a Blue Raider possessing a more consistent impact toward winning.

Elias King has emerged.

King finished third in points amongst all Blue Raiders in the three-game stretch with 31. He finished first in 3-pointers made with 6 off of 13 attempts. Not to mention he had what ended up being the game-winning putback against Montana State with 18 seconds left. The junior wing clearly looks more comfortable looking for and taking his shots and looks like a prime candidate to replace some of the wing scoring Josh Jefferson provided so well last season.

But the offense is only half the story when considering Elias' emergence this season. He led all Blue Raiders in Montreal with 18 total rebounds and finished second in both steals and blocks (5 of each). That's pretty remarkable growth from a young man who just a year ago had a hard time staying on the court due to his deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball.

The extra work King puts in on his game is well-known around the program. You combine that with the top 150 national ranking he had out of high school and King's liftoff may only be at the stratosphere.

Jestin Porter getting into his groove.

Porter arrived in Murfreesboro with an impressive scoring ability at the junior college level, averaging 19.3 ppg over two years at Tyler CC in Texas (even ranking 9th in all of NJCAA during the 2020-2021 season). That didn't immediately translate as Porter averaged 4 points on 18% shooting against his first three D1 opponents. However, the switch flipped in Montreal with 41 total points over the three games (second amongst Blue Raiders) and a stellar 61/43/100 shooting line. Good offensive possessions were hard to come by in Middle's two lopsided losses. Porter finding his rhythm at the NCAA level looks to be at least a short-term remedy.

A surprise playmaker.

Weston and Dishman entered the season as the team's lone known assets in the playmaking department. Excluding them, no player on the roster had finished an NCAA season with more than one assist per game.

Despite only finishing with 19 assists in 37 games last year, sophomore wing Teafale Lenard led the team in assists throughout the Northern Classic, dishing over a quarter of the team's 35 total assists. But this trend isn't exclusive to Canada; Lenard currently leads the team in assists on the year (16) and is second to Dishman in assist percentage.

Defense still wreaking havoc.

Blue Raider opponents averaged 62.6 points a game on 43% shooting from the field (31% from 3) as well as 18 turnovers a game. Middle finished the event with a total of 45 steals and blocks (30 steals and 15 blocks) which was the highest among all six participants.

The Blue Raiders exited last year in the top 50 nationally in both steal percentage and block percentage, per KenPom. Early returns suggest they have maintained those strengths into this season, ranking 52nd in steal percentage and 23rd in block percentage, which helps make the Blue Raiders 66th in the country in overall adjusted defense.

Free-throw shooting isn't catastrophic.

Middle shot 56% from the stripe in the first three games of the season. Since? They are 78%. Three, four, and even seven-game stretches are small sample sizes, but the efficiency at the line the past two weeks should relieve some that were panicking over the results from the first week and a half.

Still living and dying by the 3?

Blue Raiders shot just under 35% from beyond the arc in their trip to Canada. Pretty not bad, but still hard to ignore the collective 17% they shot in their two losses to Winthrop and Missouri State. Middle moves the ball well and plays very unselfishly looking for the best shot, no matter who takes it. However in tough road environments when the moment gets thick, the team will have to find new ways to win, because the highs and lows of 3-point shooting at this level are inevitable. A go-to iso scorer may be necessary to establish at some point.

The non-conference schedule kicks into full gear this Wednesday with an away game at St. Bonaventure, who is coming off a 12-point win against Notre Dame and could be the most talented team the Raiders see in this phase of the season. KenPom's metrics rank the Bonnies 28th in the country on 3-point percentage defense, so this will be a real test to see if Middle Tennessee has learned and improved from their downfalls in the two prior road trips before the win streak in Canada. Non-conference play is rounded out with a reunion with an old neighbor at Belmont, then a home stint featuring games with Chatanooga and Murray State

Prediction? MTSU goes 3-2 over the next 5 and enters league play at 8-4. However, I will say that St. Bonaventure is the only game that concerns me, and think 9-3 is on the table. If the Blue Raiders find a way to beat the Bonnies Wednesday evening and then capitalize on their chance at 10-2 against Belmont, Chatanooga, and Murray State, we might be due for something even better than 26-11 by year's end.