NCAA Tournament Preview: MT vs Minnesota

Despite having an off-the-charts regular season campaign, Middle Tennessee fans were biting their nails as their Blue Raiders made the trip down the road to Birmingham, Alabama to compete in the Conference USA tournament. Although there was an opportunity for an at-large bid, MT wanted to leave no doubt by winning the conference tournament for the second straight year and having their NCAA berth signed sealed and delivered.

The Blue Raiders won each game in Birmingham by double digits. They defeated UTSA and UTEP with relative ease. Marshall did give Kermit Davis’ crew a run for their money in the title game, but MT displayed an abundance of grit and perseverance, winning the championship 83-72.

MT waited for their seed announcement Sunday. As the bracket was unveiled, it didn’t take long for MT’s name to come across the screen. The Blue Raiders garnered the No. 12 seed in the South Region and are slated to face the No. 5 seed Minnesota Golden Gophers. While many around the program expected a lower seed this time around, the NCAA selection committee did give MT a favorable draw. It’s like clockwork; every year you see a No. 12 seed rise up and upset a No. 5. Will this trend stay true this go around? Should the Blue Raiders be so lucky as to win in the first two rounds, a potential Sweet 16 matchup would take place just down the road in Memphis.

That being said, the task at hand is defeating Minnesota, and only Minnesota. With that in mind, let’s dig in to the MT’s opening round opponent.

Members of the Big 10 Conference, the Golden Gophers of Minnesota currently stand pat with an overall record of 24-9, the best year over year turnaround in the country. They finished fourth in their entire league, scrapping their way to a respectable record of 11-7 in conference play, garnering a bye all the way to the quarterfinals in the Big 10 tournament.

In the quarterfinals, Minnesota survived a late charge from the No. 5 seed, the ever-famous Michigan State Spartans. The Gophers eked out a win, 63-58, but they then fell to the Michigan Wolverines in their tournament semifinal match.

The Big 10 is no doubt a quality conference from top to bottom and Minnesota earned their stripes throughout the year. They were rewarded with the second highest seed among their conference members in this years field.

Let’s dive in and take a glance at some of the numbers and analytics. Both Middle Tennessee and Minnesota average 75 points per game. The Blue Raiders have the edge on defense, as they give up 63 points per game to the Gophers 69 points per game allowed.

Both of these squads like to share the sugar and are both ranked in the top 100 nationally in assists. MT averages 15.3 assists per game, 65th nationally, while Golden Gophers average 14.9 APG, 79th nationally. On average, MTSU collects 36 boards per game while Minnesota reels in about 40 on average.

As you can see, the statistics between these two clubs mirror each other, but it is worth noting that on the year, Minnesota outperformed their opponents in every major statistical category.

When two teams are matched up in the Big Dance, fans often try to go back and look for common opponents on the schedules. As it happens, both MT and Minnesota do have a common opponent this year - Vanderbilt.

Minnesota defeated Vanderbilt on a neutral court this year, 56-52, while MT got the Dores at home, where they just throttled them, 71-48. So, make of that what you will, if anything.

As far as scoring goes, the Golden Gophers have phenomenal scoring distribution. Nate Mason, Amir Coffey, Jordan Murphy and Dupree McBrayer all average double figures in points this year.

Mason, a junior guard, is the straw that stirs the drink. He is diminutive at the height of 6’2” but he packs a punch with his game. He averages 15.5 points per game but also chips in about five assists a game.

Up next on the scoring totem poll is Amir Coffey. Coffey is listed as a guard but could pass for a small forward or power forward. He is tall and lean at 6-foot-8 and checking in at 195 pounds. You can rely on Coffee to get 12-15 each game. Taking a look at his statistics, he is constantly dropping performances with over 19 points, and exploded for 30 versus St. Johns.

Minnesota will trot out some good post players as well. Jordan Murphy is a sophomore forward who is essentially a double-double machine, averaging 11 points and 9 rebounds a game. He does not have the typical size and length that you would expect to see in the post, as he hovers around 6-foot-6 and weighs 240 pounds, but he is very crafty around the basket and is great at positioning himself on the block and angling for box outs.

You will also want to keep tabs on No. 22, junior center Reggie Lynch. Lynch is a big boy at 6-foot-10 and clocking in at 260 pounds, and is not afraid to stick his nose in there to claw and scrap for rebounds and blocked shots. He’s had multiple games with over five blocked shots over the course of the campaign.

Lastly, Minnesota deploys a solid role player in Dupree McBrayer, who can hit timely shots and get hot from deep, much like MT’s Xavier Habersham. McBrayer has had some up-and-down numbers, but he can get hot and in a rhythm shooting the ball. He averages 41.7 percent from behind the arc on the year. Akeem Springs is a guy that is cut from the same cloth but he is out with an Achilles injury. Springs was a guy that averaged 9.5 points and was good for a handful of rebounds and assists each game. Him being gone is definitely a blow for the Golden Gophers, but they’ve had some time to adjust their roster accordingly. Still, it’s worth noting that a perennial starter for Richard Pitino will be out for this game.

Both MT and Minnesota deserve to be dancing this March. As the top dog of Conference USA, MT performed all year with the “X” directly on their chest. Each night out, MT had to stifle teams that were playing in their “Super Bowl,” and handled them accordingly.

Now it is time to take a step up in competition and lace them up versus a formidable team from a respected conference. Any hoops fan will recognize the last name Pitino. Richard Pitino, son of the legendary head coach Rick Pitino, is at the helm for the Gophers. The younger Pitino has recruited well and has the ball rolling in the land of the Great Lakes. Just like Middle, Minnesota can hit shots outside but also bludgeon you down low and in the paint. This has all the makings of a classic.

For what it’s worth, Pitino was, of course, the former head coach at Florida International before his time at Minnesota. Middle Tennessee head coach Kermit Davis has compiled a 4-1 record against Pitino over the years.

As for Middle Tennessee - don’t get it twisted, the Blue Raiders are no longer Cinderella. They have definitely outgrown the slipper, and they certainly did not need any luck on their way to a 30-win season, the most in school history.

Just like Minnesota, MT has depth in spades. Yes, there is the big three of Giddy Potts, JaCorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw, but don’t forget the role playing mob of Antwain Johnson, Brandon Walters, Aldonis Foote, Tyrik Dixon, Xavier Habersham and Ed Simpson – all of whom are capable of producing on a big time level at any given night for MT.

Point guard Tyrik Dixon will need to step up for the Blue Raiders in this game (and beyond). He scored just four points in the entire C-USA tournament, and seemed to struggle finding a rhythm, often forcing shots for the sake of trying to make something happen. When Dixon plays well, he adds another dimension to the Blue Raider offense, and opens things up greatly for those around him.

The thing that has carried MT to this point, however, is the consistency from the big three. Williams, Potts, and Upshaw are always cool customers in pressure-packed situations. Given that this could possibly be the last college game for Upshaw and Williams, you can bet the house that they’ll show up with the same ferocity and intensity that fans have come accustomed to know.

Also, you can bank on one guy coming off the bench to produce for Kermit Davis. Could it be Quavius Copeland? What about Karl Gamble?

The winner of Thursday’s matchup will move on to face the winner of No. 4 seed Butler and No. 13 seed Winthrop.

Middle Tennessee State - 74

Minnesota - 70