GoMiddle Staff: Troy at MTSU Predictions
After an eight year hiatus, Middle Tennessee State and Troy resume their rivalry Saturday (3 p.m., ESPN2).
The Blue Raiders hold a 12-8 series lead and won the last meeting 24-21 in 2012.
Following a bye week after the loss to Army, MT will look to bounce back and prove the opening game was a fluke.
Troy has not played to this point in the season - the Trojans are coming off a 5-7 campaign last season.
The GoMiddle staff predicts the outcome below:
Matt Dossett (Publisher)
Middle Tennessee State's ballgame against the Troy Trojans is an enigmatic and tricky game to get a read on and ultimately predict.
It is very possible that the game against Army was a complete aberration and somewhat of a fluke. After all, Army is a complete different animal, considering that they run a non-traditional offense that is the triple option, and offense that MT will likely not face the rest of the season.
I think that Troy is a decent team and a formidable opponent, but make no mistake about, they are not the 1985 Chicago Bears. For their 2019 campaign they went 5-7 overall and 3-5 in Sun Belt conference play.
At the time of writing this, the ESPN FPI system gives MT a 18.8 percent chance of coming out with the victory. Also, at the time of writing this, Troy is a 3.5 point favorite when it comes to the betting line. This does seem a tad low.
No, I don't think MT will get their doors blown off like they did against Army, but I do think that Troy will cover the spread.
Look for Troy to have some rust early on, considering this is their first game of the year. It may take the Trojans a bit to dust off the cobwebs.
One factor to consider is the fan element. The game is at Floyd stadium, but will the Blue Raider faithful come out and support the team? Will Troy fans infiltrate and take over the stadium?
Look for Troy to score late, beating MT by two scores.
Troy: 30
MT: 16
Tyler Pellom
I don't believe this MT team is as bad as the Army game indicated. 42-0 was a drubbing, no doubt, but we have to remember Army was not forced to send their student-athletes home this summer like the vast majority of programs were. Being a service academy, the Black Knights got the benefit of a full summer workout schedule and a full fall camp.
That doesn't excuse MT's performance, but it does help explain why one team looked so much more ready, both mentally and physically.
Troy lost 7 games last season after stringing together a few 10 win seasons. Neal Brown left for West Virginia and in came Chip Lindsay. His first season was a tough one, and the program will be looking to get back to the standard set by the previous regime.
I would expect Troy to look a bit jittery early given this is their first game of the season. As MT proved, anything can happen when you start being knocked around by a team more acclimated to the physicality of Division 1 football.
Vegas has the line at Troy -3.5, so it appears they are expecting a close game.
I expect the MT defense to compete, but I saw nothing two Saturdays ago that makes me believe the current MT offense can keep up with a high-scoring Troy team.
Prediction:
Troy: 34
MT: 17
Rickey Fuquay Jr.
Middle Tennessee failed to defend the triple option attack as Army Senior Running Back Sandon McCoy tallied three first half touchdowns on 15 carries and 50 yards en route to a shutout win at home against the Blue Raiders.
Fresh off a Bye week, The Battle for the Palladium returns for the first time since 2012.
Troy comes into 2020 projected to finish third in the Sun Belt Conference East Division. The Trojans finished third in the Sun Belt in total offense and seventh in the Sun Belt in total defense.
MT comes into the game ranked dead last in Conference USA in virtually every category for total offense; however they are ranked second in C-USA in total defense.
The Blue Raiders have lost seven out of the last 11 games against the Trojans.
Even though Redshirt Junior Quarterback Asher O'Hara was benched in Week 1 after recording 46 yards and two interceptions on 9-of-14 passing, I feel like he will have a bounce-back game. However, I do not feel confident in our defense after what I saw against the Black Knights.
Sophomore Quarterback Gunnar Watson is going to have a field day with one of the best receiving corps in school history led by Senior Wide Receiver Kaylon Geiger and come through late in regulation.
Troy: 28
MTSU: 21