It’s do-or-die time for the MTSU Blue Raiders; bowl eligibility is still possible, but Middle must win out to get there, and it starts this Saturday at UTEP. The Miners, like MT, have struggled this year and sit at 1-7, but there’s plenty to play for under a first-year head coach. Even though they won’t be bowling in 2024, they’ll still play hard to try and finish the season strong.

“When I look at that football team as a team looking to ascend. They have an identity on offense and know who they want to be; defensively, they’ve hit their stride, and on special teams, they’ve been solid,” says MTSU head coach Derek Mason. “We’ll prepare and head to El Paso to play our best ball.”

SCOUTING REPORT

The UTEP offense has been bad this year and ranks nearly last in PPG (17), total yards (320), passer efficiency (124.3) and YPC (3.4). They can’t throw the football well, and when they air it out, they turn it over, throwing nine interceptions in eight games. They do have two solid running backs that can make you pay if you don’t tackle them at the first point of contact, so that will be the biggest thing to focus on. The Miners run an air raid system, but they like establishing a running game to open everything else, but don’t let that happen. They aren't scoring points if they don’t have a decent rush attack.

Where they can be dangerous is on the opposite side of the ball. Their defense has been ferocious and lives in the backfield. That will be the biggest thing to look for, with the Blue Raider offensive line being weak most of the season and UTEP leading CUSA in sacks and TFLs. The ball will have to get out quickly and try to run the football to take some pressure off quarterback Nick Vattiato.

So, you know exactly what you have to do scheme-wise to get a win in this game, but with the talent on the UTEP front seven and MTSU’s lack of stopping the run, it’s harder said than done.

FIVE KEYS FOR MTSU

· Shut down the UTEP rushing attack

Their offense has been bad in 2024, averaging just 17 PPG and having the third least efficient offense in CUSA. Both quarterbacks haven’t found consistency, with ten touchdowns to nine interceptions and a 61% completion rate.

But where they have been able to move the ball is on the ground with their two running backs, Jevon Jackson and Ezell Jolly, who averaged over 4 YPC. They don’t give it to them enough, but their ability to get through the second level, combined with the lack of tackling from MTSU, is a recipe for disaster. Stopping the run and making Skyler Locklear beat you with his arm is the way to go because he’s not proven he can do that this year.

· Get the ball out fast

UTEP has an outstanding pass rush, tied for ninth in the nation in sacks with 21, so it’s a when not if they pressure Vattiato. The MTSU offense and Bodie Reeder must help him get the ball out quickly with routes over the middle and to the sideline to keep the Miner front seven honest and out of the backfield too much.

You still need to drop back, but showing them different looks will keep the defense on their toes and allow Middle to run their offense efficiently.

· Establish the running game

This goes hand in hand with the previous point, the Miners have not been good at defending the run, allowing 4.5 YPC, so go at them with it. Jekail Middlebrook and Flip Credle have been reliable this year, especially outside of the tackles, so that’s a matchup that MTSU could take advantage of.

· Make open-field tackles

MTSU did a horrendous job of this against Jacksonville State, allowing 283 yards after contact en route to a 42-20 loss. Making open-field tackles or at least holding onto someone until a teammate can come to clean it up will be critical not just in this game but the rest of the season. That’s been the biggest issue with the Middle defense; the corners and front seven have struggled mightily at times, but just making a clean tackle would fix most of their problems.

· Challenge the UTEP secondary

This secondary is just not very good. They have the second-least efficient passing defense in CUSA, allowing over 200 yards a game, and outside of their six interceptions, have been torched over the top. If the offensive line and running backs can help Vattiato, then he and Omari Kelly should eat over the top, along with Holden Willis being open over the middle of the field.

MTSU should win that matchup, so taking advantage of that will be a must if they want to leave the Sun Bowl victorious.

IMPACT PLAYERS

Offense: Omari Kelly, Jekail Middlebrook

It’s self-explanatory for Kelly, he’s one of the best receivers in the country and has racked up 547 yards and three touchdowns against conference foes. Nobody in CUSA has been able to stop him, and it’ll be no different on Saturday. Middlebrook’s numbers don’t pop on the stat sheet, but when the Blue Raiders need a short-yard conversion, he’s made it happen.

Getting those conversions is vital to extend drives against a UTEP team that’s struggled to get off the field.

Defense: Jordan Thompson, Xavier Williams

Thompson and Williams are two of the top tacklers on this Blue Raider defense, but they’ve also been able to get in the backfield and make plays with 4.5 combined TFLs. Their ability to play all over the field and stop the run will be critical against a team that has proven to hurt you on the ground.

If the MTSU defense looks good, these two will be the main reason why. The defense found success in the Memphis and Kennesaw State games because they were making plays.

Kick-off is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. CT on CBS Sports Network. MTSU is a 3.5-point underdog, with ESPN giving them a 40.1% chance of beating UTEP.