And just like that, only two guaranteed games are left for the 2024 Blue Raiders. The season has gone by fast, but MTSU will now turn its attention to the New Mexico State Aggies, who will try to spoil the bittersweet Senior Day.
“We play a New Mexico State team that’s coming off a tough loss to Texas A&M. When I look at them, they’ve done a good job running the football; between Seth McGowan and Mike Washington, they’ve rushed for nearly 1,200 yards,” Coach Derek Mason said. “Our Achilles heel this season has been rushing attacks, so we have our work cut out for us, and our front seven must find a way to build a wall and set an edge.”
SCOUTING REPORT
As Mason said, NMSU features a potent run game that ranks No. 23 among Group of Five teams for YPC (4.5). Even with the rushing attack being as successful as it has been this season, the Aggies are a one-dimensional offense, as quarterback play has been a big issue. New Mexico head coach Tony Sanchez has trotted out four different quarterbacks, but they’ve completed just 41.8% of passes with a 7/11 TD-INT ratio.
Even with their poor passing game, they may not even need it against the Blue Raiders, who have one of the worst rush defenses in the nation. MTSU allows 207.5 yards per game, with 937 allowed within the last three games.
“We’re thinking run first but there’s nothing to say they won’t do play-action and throw it deep,” says safety Xavier Williams. “We’ve got to stay consistent in our keys and some of the things they show us. Football is a game, so you’ve got to play the game within the game.”
Defensively, the Aggies have been abysmal, giving up close to 40 PPG and not creating havoc with turnovers and sacks. Ranking last in CUSA for both sacks and turnovers forced. Not to say it won’t happen, but they’re not usually the team that beat you by forcing mistakes. Nick Vattiato and his receivers have a chance to expose a secondary that’s been torched all year.
New Mexico has also struggled to defend the run, so this game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair.
FIVE KEYS FOR MTSU
· Contain the run and force Santino Marucci to throw
Once again, New Mexico State can’t throw the football, but their bread and butter is running it down your throat. The Blue Raiders need to make a wall up front and set an edge to contain Washington and McGowan to make Marucci throw it because it typically doesn’t go well when he does.
On the year, he’s tossed for 519 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions at a 43.6% completion rate. The No. 1 key to winning this football game is to ensure he has to beat you through the air.
· Establish a running game
It seems like a broken record, but MTSU needs to finally establish a rushing game to help Vattiato do his job. When teams know you can’t run the ball, they will pin their ears back, like opponents do to the Aggies, only it's flipped.
If they can keep the chains moving by running the rock, it makes everyone’s job easier and allows one of the best quarterbacks in CUSA to do his thing.
· Take deep shots
NMSU is dead last in passing efficiency and yards given up per game, so attack them. Middle has one of the best tight ends and wide receivers in America, take some shots down the field and force their DBs to make plays.
Even if you only connect on a few, you keep their D honest and give yourself a better shot to try other things in the system.
· Fly to the football and swarm their ball carriers
Yards after contact has been an issue for the Middle Tennessee defense this season, but that must change against two of the bigger running backs in the conference. Arm tackles don’t work with backs who are bigger than a lot of people on your defense.
Wrap up at the point of contact; even if you can’t tackle them one-on-one, hold on until your teammates get there to help you. If the Blue Raiders can do that, they will be set up for success on the defensive side.
· Play mistake-free football
So many times this year, MTSU has shot themselves in the foot with boneheaded penalties, dropped passes, and more that completely derail a game.
They have a good chance of winning if they can avoid those back-breaking plays.
IMPACT PLAYERS
Offense: Holden Willis and Nick Vattiato
This QB-to-TE duo is one of the best in the country. Willis and Vattiato have been dominant this year, and I don’t see that changing, especially on Senior Day.
The two have connected for 90 receptions, 1,378 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two seasons and should have another great game on Saturday.
Defense: Parker Hughes and Xavier Williams
These two are some of the better defenders in the conference, especially in terms of tackling, which will be huge when they face the Aggies.
If Middle Tennessee wants to have a good day defensively, they must involve those two.
Kick-off time is 1:30 p.m. CT from Floyd Stadium and will be shown on ESPN+. The spread favors MTSU by a field goal, with ESPN giving the Blue Raiders a 71.9% chance of victory.
