After a long last few weeks, MTSU will be concluding their three games in 13 days against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks on Wednesday night from AmFirst Stadium. The Blue Raiders will face a significant challenge with a team that has finally found its groove offensively and is led by Coach Rich Rodriguez, one of the better coaches of the last 20 years.
“We’re not going to be surprised by the physicality of Jax State. They can run the ball, spread you out, and take shots downfield; defensively, they’re opportunistic,” says MTSU head coach Derek Mason. “I’ve Known Rich Rod for a while; they’ve hit their rhythm, and we’re still trying to find ours. We’re looking forward to the challenge of going to Jax State and what it means.”
Scouting Report
After starting the season 0-3 and being outscored 141-75, many concerns arose about the Jacksonville State program and what had happened following a 9-4 season in 2023. Those concerns were quickly put to bed once the team won three consecutive games, all by at least 36 points or more behind a potent offense and game-wrecking defense.
The Gamecock offense averages 39 points and 447 yards per game, the best rushing offense in CUSA. It is the only team with two 400+ yard rushers and an average of nearly six YPC. Not only can they run the ball, but their dual-threat QB Tyler Huff has been exceptional with 1,269 passing yards, seven touchdowns, a 66.4% completion rate and the second-best passer efficiency in the conference at 157.2.
Rodriguez will use his quarterback’s arm quite a bit, but they are a running-first team that will ride with running back Tre Stewart and Huff nearly 30 times a game.
On the defensive side of things, it’s not special. They give up over 400 yards a game and 30 PPG, but where they shine is the turnover department. The Gamecocks have forced 15 turnovers in six games (tied 5th in the nation), so it’ll be critical that the Blue Raiders don’t shoot themselves in the foot by giving Jax State the ball more than they already have it.
On paper, this looks like a juggernaut matchup where MTSU stands no chance, but there seems to be a recipe for victory that the Blue Raiders must follow if they want to do so. You must shut down their run game and make Huff beat you with his arm, not to say he can’t. But opponents held them to 3.8 YPC in their first three games, and the signal caller couldn’t get it done for his team.
If you can do that, be efficient through the air and not turn it over, you’ve got a chance because everyone who’s beaten them thus far has done it that way.
“We need to knock the offensive line back to disrupt the offense, especially on first down, so they can’t run as much tempo against us,” says MTSU defensive lineman Anthony Bynum. “They [Jacksonville State] are very physical at the point of attack, so it should be a good matchup for us, but I like our team; I like our D-line.”
Five Keys for MTSU
· Set the edge on the defensive front
This is one of the things that Mason has talked about every week this season and how his team must do a better job. This week, they will have to finally do that because they will face possibly their toughest test yet when they line up against Huff, a dual-threat guy who leads the team in rushing with 503 yards.
He makes many of his plays happen on the outside, so setting an edge and forcing him back inside will be one of the top priorities for this defense. He’s a great athlete, so will he still make plays by running inside the tackles? Probably, but it will go for much less yardage and give this defense a chance to make the Gamecocks one-dimensional and get off the field easier.
· Play physical and clog interior gaps
It is much easier said than done, but interior defensive linemen like Damonte Smith, Shakai Woods, and James Gillespie must play strong and clog those gaps to force running backs outside. Where, in theory, your outside backers should be waiting to swallow up whatever comes close.
The first two keys go together with stopping the run by forcing Huff to stay in the pocket and collapsing on the running backs to contain this potent rushing attack. It won’t be easy with First Team All-American left guard Clay Webb and others leading an offensive line that’s given up just nine sacks, tied for the ninth fewest in the nation.
The Gamecocks have a star-studded line, but the Blue Raiders played extremely physically and smartly against Kennesaw a week ago. That will be the matchup to watch on Wednesday night.
· Don’t throw the ball to the Jax State defensive backs
It should be self-explanatory but don’t throw the ball at the other team. Nick Vattiato has forced passes sometimes, and that’s why he has five picks on the year and should have more, but the ball was dropped.
Jacksonville State ranks in the top 10 in the nation for interceptions forced, so they will try to confuse the middle quarterback and get the ball in their hands; you can’t allow that. Especially considering that their defense isn’t special outside of the interceptions, so don’t hurt yourself by giving them the football.
Play smart, don’t force anything, and try to establish the run early so the JSU defense can’t pin their ears back and focus on the passing attack.
· String out drives and keep the Gamecock offense on the sideline
It’s not a shot at the MTSU defense, but sometimes, your best defense is your offense. Jacksonville State puts up points with a hurry-up offense that has the ball only 20 minutes a game, so being able to string out drives and keep Huff and Co. on the sidelines could stall their offense or at least limit points. The magic number for MTSU to have a shot at winning is 35. Limiting possessions and allowing right at 30 points could be just enough to pull off the upset on the road.
· Get Flip Credle the ball running outside the tackles
Credle is an explosive running back who, when out in space, can make defenders miss. He hasn’t been run to the outside enough this year, but he averages over 4.5 YPC when he does. It seems like a no-brainer to get somebody like that in space because it also opens up the inside running game and passing game.
Middle has been very predictable on offense this year, but they've found success when they run outside of the tackles. I’d like to see them do it more against the Gamecocks.
MTSU will kickoff against Jacksonville State on Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. CT. The spread has the Blue Raiders as a 21-point underdog, with ESPN giving them an 11% chance to win.
