From Ignored To Adored: Middle Tennessee Basketball Is Back

Just 363 days ago, I published a column titled "The Season That Few Are Waiting For." It felt as though Middle Tennessee basketball was living in its worst-case scenario. The results between the 2019 and the 2021 seasons produced the worst three-year stretch in the program's modern era, and somehow it felt even worse than it sounds considering this run succeeded the program's best three-year stretch from the 2016 to the 2018 season. Add departures and injuries over the summer and fall of 2021, and there was simply not much to be encouraged about with the program's trajectory. Fan apathy as well as media projections and expectations made it apparent.

Many know that head coach Nick McDevitt was dealt plenty of poor hands in his first three seasons in Murfreesboro. In his third season, there was this global pandemic that complicated just about every aspect of everyday life.

And to be clear, we now know the COVID-19 precautions and regulations affected different teams to different lengths. We'll never know what Middle's 5-18 output in 2021 would've been under normal conditions. But at the time, it was difficult for any Blue Raider die-hard to come to terms with it being just another excuse. For every year the team moved farther from the Kermit Davis era, the win/loss results got worse. The reasons became diluted as the win percentages by season continued to decline. Every team has injuries. Every team had COVID hurdles. A program that consistently cleared 20 wins throughout most of the 2010s now can't even get close to .500.

Things felt very bad. There was a very real sense of panic that MTSU had squandered all of the moment from its success in the early-to-mid 2010s. But 12 months later, things feel quite different, maybe even the polar opposite. The Blue Raiders are coming off a 26-win season and entering the new one with expectations of sustaining, and maybe even improving, the old standard they started returning to a calendar year ago.

Middle started the season with a strong 7-1 start. While the strength of the non-conference schedule was a step down to what it had been in McDevitt's first three years, beating Winthrop by 11 and winning two MTE games versus Rider and Mercer by a combined 30-points was nothing to sneeze at. The following month was comprised of a 3-3 output, but all three losses being away games against top-110 KenPom teams (Murray State, Ole Miss, and Chattanooga) made a 9-4 start feel satisfactory based on the preseason expectations. The vibes were improving amongst fans, but still not many were anticipating the impressive run the team was about to go on.

Conference play started with speed bumps. The team had to reschedule their first two games against UTSA and UTEP due to COVID protocols on the Blue Raiders' side. At this point they hadn't played a game in two weeks (and likely missed practice time as well), which boded poorly for their first conference road trip, losing to Rice and North Texas.

The next five games were all wins all in different fashions. The Blue Raiders blew the doors off a good FAU team, then won a rock fight against FIU two days later. The following week they pulled away late against an upset-minded Southern Miss. Next was a road game at Marshall that featured 160 total points scored and was decided in the final six seconds. But the last win of this streak was by far the biggest and was a signal to the rest of the league that this Blue Raider team was legit.

Middle Tennessee went into Diddle Arena to face rival Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers were 5.5-point favorites, and were 4-0 in the last four meetings, winning by an average of 14 points per contest. That trend came to a screeching halt followed by a sharp U-turn. The Blue Raiders won handily with their best offensive output of the season, 93-85.

After being humbled by a mammoth performance from UAB and Jordan Walker, it felt clear that MTSU had a target on its back. Other teams saw what they were doing and saw that they had positioned themselves well on C-USA's East Division standings. They were not going to catch anyone by surprise any longer.

And yet, that didn't matter. Middle continued a stellar level of play, winning eight straight and making it a 13-1 stretch since their Texas road trip to open league play. This was capped by another big win against Western Kentucky in late February that clinched a division title.

With all the momentum in the world, it started to stutter when Josh Jefferson missed the road trip to Charlotte and Old Dominion. Both games ended as losses to wrap up the regular season. It wasn't known at the time, but the Western Kentucky game would be Jefferson's last as a Blue Raider.

Fans still knew Middle had the talent and ability to make a run in the C-USA tournament, but the chances got understandably slimmer when their leading scorer was unable to play. All that considered, they still grinded out a CUSAT win against UTEP, and took the eventual auto-bid UAB team down to the wire in a classic March Madness battle, losing by 4 in triple overtime.

A few weeks later, MTSU wins three games in four days in the CBI tournament to advance to the final. While California Baptist was pesky, the Blue Raiders made easy work against Boston University and Abilene Christian, beating them by a combined 161-115. Facing a worthy opponent in UNC-Wilmington in the final, Middle Tennessee lost another extra time heartbreaker, this time by six in double OT.

The UAB loss felt "better" (to me at least). Despite ample opportunities to win, I thought the Blazers just seemed like the more talented team and in better form. The UNCW loss was crushing, especially considering the Blue Raiders were up 4 with 18 seconds left in regulation.

Still, the final result shouldn't overshadow the season's overall sentiment. Even the advanced and arbitrary algorithms in Las Vegas couldn't catch up with the way this team constantly exceeded their expectations, as Middle Tennessee finished first in all of college basketball against the spread (26-8-1). As they say, good teams win but great teams cover.

Have all of the doubts that were cast in Coach McDevitt's first three years been entirely erased? Maybe. Maybe not. But after a season like that, it is hard to deny that he has Middle Tennessee basketball it is back where belongs entering the 2022-23 season.

Middle Tennessee loses Josh Jefferson and Donovan Sims to graduation and lost Isaiah Turner to the transfer portal midseason. After that, Blue Raiders return everyone to give Nick McDevitt his most tenured and experienced roster by a decent margin.

The newcomers include JuCo transfers Jestin Porter and Trevon Smith, as well as high school graduate Tre Green. Porter displayed good volume scoring ability at Tyler Junior College in Texas, averaging 19 points over 39 career games. Smith averaged over two 3-pointers made per contest at a 38% clip in his two seasons at Wabash Valley. Green is more of a mystery, but his self-made highlight reel displays some good physical tools with a quick first step as well as effortless leaping and floating ability that should lay a good foundation for a lot of potential as a college basketball player.

Middle ranked 88th in the country and 3rd in C-USA in KenPom's defensive efficiency last season. Opponents averaged 67 points a game while shooting a meager 41% from the field. Expect those marks to be even better this season with the personnel they return. Point guard Cam Weston can guard positions 1 through 3, and maybe even some 4's. While DeAndre Dishman stands short for a center (6'6), he holds his own with strength and athleticism. The bonus with Dish is he can switch on the perimeter and guard smaller quicker players better than most 5's in college basketball, throwing a wrench in opponent screen actions. Now consider all the wings Middle has that guard multiple positions: Eli Lawrence, Teafale Lenard, Justin Bufford, etc... The defensive versatility McDevitt has built on this roster is impressive, and expect this to be Middle's biggest asset this coming season.

Perimeter shooting seems to be the clear caution to consider when evaluating this team on paper. With Sims and Jefferson graduating, they take 126 of Middle's 302 made 3's last year. Raiders will need more volume and efficiency from players like Eli Lawrence, Tyler Millin, and Elias King to fill the void. The team may want to also consider trying to be aggressive in transition opportunities so they are less dependent on halfcourt scoring.

Ball handling could be something to keep an eye on as well. Cam Weston assumes the role of starting point guard and has proven he's got some incredible playmaking ability as he matched Donovan Sims in total assists last season (101) despite finishing with significantly fewer minutes (1,035 to 762 respectively). Sims got the nod to start simply because he was more of a pure floor general the team needed to run the offense. After going through the trials and tribulations of college basketball for five seasons, Sims understood well how to manage the game. While Weston is the more talented playmaker, his evolution as a floor general is integral for the Blue Raiders to meet their season's goal. Without a doubt, he is this team's x-factor.

While Middle Tennessee faces zero teams from any of the top six conferences, its schedule is stacked with well-respected mid-major programs. Besides St. Bonaventure, every D1 opponent on the nonconference schedule was picked to finish fourth or higher in their respective conference. Also worth mentioning is that Middle does not host their first D1 nonconference opponent at the Murphy Center until mid-December.

Conference play will only increase in difficulty. It is fair to expect MTSU to be improved this season, but be aware the top of C-USA is the best it has been in years. UAB returns the league's reigning player of the year in Jordan Walker, while also adding LSU transfer Eric Gaines. These two have the potential to make up one of the best backcourts not only in mid-major ball but all of college basketball. North Texas has quietly been running the league the past three years, winning an NCAA Tournament game one season
and finishing with C-USA's best record in the other two. The Mean Green being voted third in the coach's poll doesn't seem appropriate when considering the team and program Grant McCasland has built in Denton. Western Kentucky's recruiting prowess has continued through the transfer portal, receiving commits from former Kentucky, Indiana, and Boise State players, each being a former four or five-star player out of high school. The Hilltoppers also return arguably their two best players from last season in Dayvion McKnight and Jamarion Sharp.

In the Conference USA coaches poll, Middle Tennessee was picked to finish fourth in the league, and Teafale Lenard Jr. was selected to the preseason all-conference team. Both seem fair and deserved, though I will say it is reassuring that Lenard was selected despite finishing seventh on the team in minutes a game and only averaging 7 points last year. It is clear to anyone who has seen the kid play can envision the massive potential he possesses.

All that said, Middle without a doubt has the ability to finish higher than fourth. In college basketball, we all know that despite how gargantuan a Goliath may seem, the unexpected becomes ordinary and parity prevails. The two most essential attributes a team needs to go on a run in March are talent and experience. Middle Tennessee possesses a good balance of both that should have fans excited for the program's 100th season.