Middle Tennessee men’s basketball is off to a hot start in the 2024-2025 season, with three convincing wins, two being against D1 opponents. While the program has been susceptible to some peaks and valleys during the six prior years of the McDevitt era, there are several early signs of optimism that the Blue Raider men are due for the former and can potentially exceed the expectation of their 4th place pick in the preseason poll.

If you have followed MTSU, you are well aware that McDevitt likes to use his center as a pseudo playmaker of sorts, running the offense through their 5-man at the free throw line or the top of the key. The idea is to create spacing, but the reward has not been worth the risk. Blue Raider centers have been vulnerable as less-than-stellar ball-handlers in open space within this scheme, thus creating plenty of turnovers. Last season, Middle Tennessee had its worst turnover rate in 5 years, and the centers accounted for 31% of their total giveaways on the season.

This year’s center situation is not the same. Senior transfer Essam Mostafa is your classic low-post bruiser. Listed at 6’9 and 250 lbs, Mostafa is averaging a very steady 17 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 77% from the field. He has never had a season averaging more than 2 assists or 2 turnovers per game, and has shot a total of 11 3’s over his 118 career games. He is as conventional a college basketball center as it gets.

Then you have Chris Loofe, sophomore backup in his second season with the Blue Raiders. While Loofe isn’t quite as traditional as Mostafa, mainly because he can shoot 3’s (he only has one 3PA though 3 games but I would expect that to go up eventually), he does have all the makings of a classic rim protector, averaging 1.3 blocks in just 15 minutes a game. His small sample 10.4% block rate on the year is tied (Trevor Ottley; 09-10) for the best among MTSU players in Sports Reference’s database (dates back to 02-03).

Its early, but I don’t think its too bold to say this is the best the center position has been during McDevitt’s tenure in Murfreesboro. It certainly feels the most stable and the least volatile due to the talent, depth, experience, and change in strategy.

Recently MTSU's rotations have been very wing/forward heavy in terms of positions. Its no secret Nick McDevitt likes his 6’6 to 6'8 plus athletes that can defend everywhere and play above-the-rim. The problem with playing too many of this archetype at once is it can compromise a foundational level of skill and IQ. Something that a true guard might be more equipped with.

There is no question the guard depth hasn’t been good enough the last two years and is possibly the biggest reason the program has gone a combined 33-33 over the past two seasons. Cam Weston’s injury last November made it abundantly clear how desperate the team was for a true backup point guard, but even the 2022-2023 season lacked cohesive flow on offense, as Weston and Porter were the only true guards featured and only played 85 total minutes together on the season, per CBB Analytics. As a result, only 41% of Middle Tennessee’s made field goals were assisted, the 7th lowest rate in college basketball that season and the lowest it has ever been in any season for the program in since KenPom started publishing his metrics in 1996.

There is a reason McDevitt’s most successful stretch with Middle had a stellar guard rotation of Donovan Sims, Josh Jefferson, and Cam Weston in 2022. The Blue Raiders may now have a similar level of depth with Weston, Jestin Porter, as well as the addition of IUPUI senior transfer Jlynn Counter.

It was tough to know what to expect from Counter after coming from an IUPUI program who had gone 11-53 over his two seasons there, but he pops out immediately when he’s subbed in the first few minutes of the game. There is zero drop off from the starting guards to Counter in terms of talent and impact, as the trio are all well equipped with a dynamic ability of getting to and finishing at the rim. Counter is quick as a whip in the open floor and excels at instigating the fast break with his speed or with his passing. A versatile guard that plays much bigger than his 6’2 listing, Counter is third on the team in rebounds despite being sixth in minutes.

As for the returners, Weston still looks like Weston despite tearing his ACL 371 days ago. He is still great at making plays that will you gasp, whether its from being dazzled or puzzled, but his fearlessness is still an essential asset for the times throughout the season where the moment will get thick. Jestin Porter’s scoring is explosive as ever, showing early signs he has improved as shooter, hitting 39% of his 3's thus far. He looks the part as a first team all-conference player, and maybe even a competitor for C-USA player of the year.

A guard has won the C-USA tournament's most outstanding player award six of the last seven times. Having talent and ability at this position is a must in this sport. Early returns suggest MTSU is well stocked in that category for the 2024-2025 season.

Middle’s depth has been a clear strength thus far. Loofe and Counter have been mentioned as starter-level players who are coming off the bench, but Torey Alston deserves his notice too. While McDevitt may have less wing/forward depth than usual, Alston embodies everything that Coach Nick loves about these types of players. The redshirt freshman has a combination length, athleticism, and energy about him that reminds you a little of Teafale Lenard. Alston is currently seventh on the team in minutes yet second in rebounds and tied for first in blocks.

Middle’s bench unit is has finished with 19 and 25 bench points respectively in their two games against D1 opponents. After only averaging 14 bench points last season, look for much more steady production there in 2024-2025, especially when sharpshooting wing Alec Oglesby returns from injury in the coming weeks.

Its no secret Middle Tennessee has had plenty struggles in away games during Nick McDevitt’s tenure, entering this season with an abysmal road record of 14-60 and an average point differential of minus-10 per game. That might be due to change as the Blue Raiders earned McDevitt’s first 20-point road win against Abilene Christian. Yes, ACU isn’t the strongest competition (currently ranked 216th on KenPom) but Middle has still had struggles beating weak teams on the road the last few years. From 2018 to 2024, MTSU went a measly 8-13 in away games against KenPom teams rated 200th or lower. Small sample size considered, this convincing of a win is a good first step and hopefully a sign of more progress to come.

While beating Abilene Christian and Evansville by a combined 40 is worth celebrating and being encouraged about, Murray State coming to town Saturday presents a whole new level of challenge and potential confirmation of legitimacy. The Racers are another team that has had a couple of down years recently but look to be revamped. They were picked 3rd in the MVC preseason poll. They lost to Pitt by 15 last week but it is a misleading final score as Murray was within 5 points for over half the game, including the final six minutes. They have three starting guards that stuff the stat sheet, all averaging between 13 and 15 ppg, along with 2 apg. Murray State is currently 121st in KenPom, Middle Tennessee is 129th. I think you can officially be ready to get your hopes up again if the Blue Raiders can get a win on Saturday, especially if it’s another convincing one.