Charlotte Review & Marshall Preview

Middle Tennessee won two straight games for the first time all season this past weekend against the Charlotte 49ers. In a very eventful pair of games, here are my "scribbles" (word to Terry Pluto).

1. Game 1 on Friday was as close as you could imagine. Excluding the first five minutes, neither team had a lead bigger than six points. Charlotte shot 3% better, Middle finished with one more rebound and one more turnover, and the teams finished even on assists. But most importantly, MTSU finished with one more point in their 66-65 win.

2. Prior to this game, MT's three wins were by 17, 19, and 11 respectively. A win is a win, but there is something to be said of the guts and toughness it takes to bring home a W when you have to battle down to the wire. That aspect of Friday's outcome should not be ignored.

3. Dontrell Shuler played like a man on a mission in his 24 minutes of action, scoring 16 points on 6-8 shooting in what was destined to be his best game of the season. But at the 10-minute mark of the second half, he landed awkwardly on a layup attempt, injuring his knee and unfortunately ending his season.

4. Once again, tough luck strikes this Blue Raiders squad. Once again, they were unable to persevere through the adversity, right? Wrong. Middle Tennessee made 7 of their next 13 shots, and only turned it over twice for the remainder of the game. Jalen Jordan was the hero, getting the steal and drawing the foul down by 1 with 12 seconds left. He netted both free throws to clinch the win.

5. But that was just ten minutes of moxie. No way MTSU was going to survive a full game without Shuler AND Sims, two of their best ball handlers and assist makers, right?

6. Wrong.

7. In game 2 of the Charlotte series, MTSU put on a clinic in what was without a doubt their best offensive performance of the season, beating the 49ers 73-60. The Blue Raiders had a season high in many offensive categories. Here are a few...

8. Middle Tennessee finished with a season high 17 assists and a season low 9 turnovers. That is a +8 margin. The only other game with a positive assist-turnover margin of the year was +1 vs D3 Covenant.

9. They had a season high in both 3-pointers made and 3-point percentage, making 12 of 22 from behind the arc. Sophomores Elias King and Tyler Millin combined for 7-7 from 3. They were combined 11 of 50 (22%) entering Saturday's game.

10. For the advanced stat nerds like myself, the offensive rating on Saturday was their season's best by miles, at 128.1 (their previous season high was game one vs Charlotte, at 106.5). The two games against UNCC also featured season highs in effective FG%, as well as season lows in the pace of play. That is an interesting coincidence that may be worth revisiting in the future.

11. Let's go back to that 128.1. There have only been four other games this season where a C-USA team had a better offensive rating against a D1 team. Pretty not bad.

12. Alright. Now that I've thrown out all these numbers, let's go into why MTSU's offense was so statistically successful on Saturday. What stuck out to me from the tip to the final buzzer was off-ball player movement. Even in the blowout wins against Murray State and FIU, the four players without the ball didn't seem as active or in motion like they were Saturday. Constant screens, back-screens, cuts, flares. Combine that with crisp passing and you have beautiful basketball with efficient offensive production.

13. We have not seen an offense with this type of flow and rhythm this season, or maybe even the past three seasons. It is not as if the 49ers have the worst defense in the world either. This was the season high among their opponents in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage as well. The numbers and the film don't lie. However, we have seen this offense explode in earlier games this year, and they revert back to being anemic the next several games. I am encouraged, but I want to see them do this a couple more times over the next couple series before I get excited.

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 10-5 overall this season, and are fourth in C-USA's east division at 4-4. Junior guard Taevion Kinsey is a legitimate college star, standing 2nd in the conference in points per game at 19.8 and 3rd in field goal percentage at 55%. Some NBA draft analysts have even projected him to go in the 2nd round this summer. He is a big time athlete with major jumping ability, shooting over 58% on his 2-point attempts in his career at Marshall. His perimeter jumper has seen steady improvement over his career, sitting at 45% from 3 this season. MTSU will have their hands full trying to contain his impact.

Marshall is known for a fast pace, lots of offense, and little defense philosophy. Those first two reign true this year, as Marshall ranks 8th in the country in average possession length and first in C-USA in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). They also rank top 50 in the country in both 2-point percentage and turnover percentage. Marshall's defense however appears to have taken a step up this year, as their defensive efficiency ranks in the top 100 for the first time since KenPom started collecting data in 2002.

The main key to beat Marshall this weekend will be rebounding. The Herd are in the bottom third in the country in giving up offensive rebounds. Given they have been so good at taking care of the ball and their offense has been so efficient, MTSU is going to need to make up the possessions on the offensive glass to stay even with Marshall's high octane attack. Another key may be the free throw battle. Marshall has been giving up 19 free throw attempts a game to their opponents in conference play. Middle has been shooting a measly 57% from the stripe the last four games. That mark will certainly have to improve this weekend to have a chance.

It is also worth mentioning that offensive rebounds and free throws slow down the pace, which would contribute an advantage to the Blue Raiders as well.

Both games this weekend will be broadcasted on ESPN+. Friday's game starts at 5 pm CST, Saturday's at 3 pm CST.