The bowl matchup is now officially set. The Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State will be squaring off with the Aztecs of San Diego State in the Hawaii bowl on Christmas Eve. The game will be aired on ESPN at 7 PM Central time.
Like the Blue Raiders, the Aztecs boast a record of 7-5. The Blue Raiders were 4-4 in Conference USA play while SDSU was 5-3 in the Mountain West Conference and they finished second in the MWC Western Division. MT finished tied for 4th in Conference USA.
On the Surface
I want to preface this and get this out there before this deep dive. This should be an absolutely wonderful experience for the players and the program. Heck, it's a great opportunity for those who can afford to make the trek all the way over to the Hawaiian Islands.
That leads us into this can of worms. This is not a game that is especially enticing considering that the lion's share of the fanbase cannot make the venture thousands of miles away to Hawaii. The game will be at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, a venue that seats roughly 9,000 seats. I do not expect and anticipate the stands to be full. Frankly it's not great exposure when people tune into a game on national television and see a bunch of empty seats. It's just not good optics and is a bad look.
Things may have been a tad different if the game was anywhere in the vicinity of Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Starting to dissect the actual game
Some of this content will be spitballing considering that there is no betting line out and there is no prediction from ESPN's FPI game predictor, where the site determines the percentage chance a team has of winning a game.
Like the Blue Raiders of MTSU, SDSU's season has had plenty of ups and downs, ebb and flow, peaks and valleys. The Aztecs certainly tested themselves in the out of conference slate, playing Pac 12 programs Arizona and Utah. The Arizona game was a home contest, while the SDSU ventured over to Utah for a road game there.
The Aztecs were throttled on the road against the Utes and Arizona, but were able to get off the canvass after starting 1-2. After the drubbing they took from Utah, they edged out Toledo at home, got obliterated by Boise State, but then defeated Hawaii at home and the Wolfpack from Nevada on the road.
They then took one to the chin, barreling losing to Fresno State, being outscored 28-32. They then established some momentum, winning three consecutive ballgames in a row.
They defeated UNLV at home 14-10 and then defeated San Jose State, 43-27, another game at home. They then headed down to New Mexico, where they crushed New Mexico 34-10.
Unlike MT who established momentum at the tail end of the season, defeating Charlotte, FAU and FIU, the Aztecs lost the regular season finale at Air Force. They lost 3-13.
Digging Further into SDSU
San Diego State has two quarterbacks on the roster that have played a solid amount of snaps. There is the elusive Jalen Mayden, and Braxton Burmeister.
Mayden has attempted 194 passes during the season and completing 62.9 percent of those throws. He connected 122 times, and tossed 10 touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions.
Burmeister threw the ball 72 times and completed 36 of those passes, obviously putting him with a 50 percent completion mark. Burmeister has two touchdowns to three interceptions.
Both quarterbacks are not shy about moving out of the pocket, scrambling down the field. Mayden has 57 rushing attempts for 205 yards, Mayden also accumulated three touchdowns with his legs.
Burmeister has 39 rushing attempts for 183 yards. He has one rushing touchdown himself.
The Aztecs have three tailbacks with over 50 carries, and one guy on the precipice of that 50 carry mark. Jordan Byrd is the bell cow of the group, rushing the ball 91 times for 389 yards, That's 4.3 yards per carry. He has three rushing touchdowns and a long run of 51 yards.
Keenan Christon 70 runs for 261 yards, which is 3.7 yards per carry. Christon has one rushing touchdown and a long run of 49 yards.
Second on the team in rushing yards is Jaylon Armstead. Armstead is averaging six yards per carry. He has two rushing touchdowns and has also busted some long runs, including.a 63 yard scamper.
Looking at the Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee State will be gunning for their fourth consecutive win of the 2022 season campaign.
The passing attack starts and ends with signal caller Chase Cunningham. He had dished out 19 touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions.
Cunningham is efficient, with a completion percentage around 67 percent. He has 283 completions for 2,920 yards on 420 attempts. If you have seen the Blue Raiders you know that they are not afraid to air it out. The leader in the clubhouse for the wide receivers is the burner Jaylin Lane. Lane has 59 snags for 829 yards. He leads the team with four touchdown receptions, with a long reception of 89 yards.
Iziah Gathings Is no slouch himself, posting 53 catches for 490 yards. Gathings has two touchdown receptions, which is tied for second on the team with Yusuf Ali.
The work horse in the running back department is Frank Peasant. Peasant is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has rushed for 747 yards on 165 carries. Darius Bracy is a chance of pace guy who 257 yards on 63 carries. That's 4.1 yards a carry.
On defense safety Tra Fluellen leads the squad in tackles. He has 97 tackles, 24 more tackles than second on the team, safety Teldrick Ross.
Having two safeties leading the team in tackles should tell you that opposing teams have peppered the secondary with passes, stretching the field vertically.
The Prediction
Again, at this point of publication, there is no betting line and FPI system for the game. At first glance it seems as if this game should be even on paper and a game with the drama and theatrics.
Look for MTSU to sling the ball all over the yards, while SDSU will be a bit more balanced in that regard.
MT is riding high with three consecutive victories. I think, in the end, the streak will be stretched to four games.
Expect a wild, silly, crazy, back and forth game. Blue Raiders will garner the win, barely.
MTSU 35
SDSU 34
