This evening the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders welcome the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to the Murphy Center in Murfreesboro. MT is 12-5 overall and 3-1 in league play, while the Toppers are 11-6 and 2-2 in CUSA play.

Now is the time to go behind enemy lines with WKU insider, Matt McCay from the Towel Rack X account.

If you were setting the line for the game where would you set it and why?

It’s currently at -7.5 for MTSU. I honestly think it should be more in MTSU’s favor. First of all, WKU is shorthanded, and yes, they have momentum from a nice bounceback win vs. KSU, but this team is incredibly streaky without Babacar Faye. I also just look at MTSU and I’m impressed. I think they’re really good this year. Also, the revenge factor. WKU absolutely embarrassed Middle to end their season last year, and that easy victory put WKU in the championship game. I would be shocked if McDivitt is not completely playing the revenge card. WKU could absolutely win, but I think what’s equally likely is a double digit road loss for the Tops.

Name a couple under the radar guys for WKU and what they bring to the table?

Enoch Kalambay is somebody that you would look at his numbers and think “role player”. Not since Babacar Faye’s injury, though. Since Baba went down on December 14, he’s made his way into the starting lineup for one thing. Another thing is before the injury to arguably WKU’s best player, he didn’t score more than 11 in any one game. In eight games since, he’s bested that three times, been in double digits four times, and averaged 21.5 last week.

The second person that I think is a huge key to WKU’s success is Jack Edelen. A guy that’s probably on nobody’s radar, he gives great minutes. One thing I’m worried about is he’ll come in and get swarmed by MTSU’s length. He played against Kennesaw State and immediately made an impact, even though it didn’t score a point. This guy does every but be tall and score. But everything else you could ever ask of him, he does. Watch for him, and just watch in general WKU’s speed vs. MTSU’s length. Which one wins out? For me, that’s your key to the whole game.

What was your WKU prediction before the season? Have they exceeded expectations or not living up to them?

Given that WKU had three true big men, one with an injury history, and another that had shown potential but was not a proven star, and another that can’t produce much offense, it was going to be hard simply because certain teams should be able to exploit WKU down low. To answer the question, the fact that WKU is winning two of three games or so is basically where we kind of thought we would be. The surprise, though is that we have two more injuries than we thought (we knew there were a bunch, anyway) and they’re still where they were supposed to be. That is the surprise. We thought Hank Plona could be good, but he’s been excellent. Just about everything he does makes sense, and somehow, WKU finds a way to be in most games, steal a few they shouldn’t, and generally find themselves with a W. Full marks to Plona for keeping the Tops afloat despite a lot of roster issues and at times, zero true big men with any offensive capability. This WKU team has a chance as is to win whatever game against whatever CUSA opponent, and that’s credit to them and the staff.

Weaknesses MT can exploit? What are some strengths?

MTSU’s length should give WKU some serious problems. Only one player that plays for MTSU is shorter than 6’3”, and that is Jestin Porter, who’s the best player on the team. If you remember, Loufe went crazy against the Tops last year, a huge body. Until the tournament, Middle’s length bothered Western. I would be shocked if MTSU’s size doesn’t play a huge factor. I also see MTSU’s offensive ability could help them hang with WKU on that end, and I think the perimeter defense could take away the “puncher’s chance” that WKU might have by hitting some shots from deep. I think WKU will have to beat Middle straight up, and they will have to drive at them, which throws them straight into the long arms of the Blue Raiders.

WKU’s strength is the pace and the ability to absolutely explode offensively and drive straight to the cup and draw fouls. WKU scored 50 in the second half at Liberty, came down from 16, and won by one. Liberty still scored 35 that half, a respectable number and the exact same number they produced in the first half. And WKU didn’t do most of its damage until the final ten minutes. The Tops are super explosive. They can look absolutely dead in the water and explode and bite you. Just about everybody on the roster can drive to the hole and finish. Don McHenry and (true freshman) Julius Thedford are the closers, and if it’s close, both already have an insane amount of “wow” moments where they just pulled something insane out and won a game or made a run.

How will the game go? Score prediction?

Emotionally, I want to barf at any prediction against WKU, especially against MTSU. But if I’m being honest, I really see this as a horrible matchup for WKU, and I sincerely don’t think they’ll win. They may make it close, and this game might be incredible. But if I’m throwing out all the possibilities of what could happen, I see way more ways Middle could win, and I really don’t see many avenues for a Topper victory. I would say both teams score, but MTSU has the ability to outscore the Tops. The way WKU wins is by either going crazy offensively or completely shutting down MTSU somehow, and I just don’t see it. Let’s go 81-71 MTSU. They maintain a small to decent lead most of the game and pull away in the final couple of minutes.