3K4MT: Western Kentucky Round 1- 2024

It is no secret that this season for the Blue Raider men has been one that every fan wants to forget. Middle Tennessee entered last week’s series of games 6-13 overall, 0-4 in the conference, and on an 8-game losing streak against D1 competition. Despite that, they managed to show some signs of life, nabbing home wins against Jacksonville State and FIU and ending what they hope to be the worst stretch of their season.

Yet at 8-13, it is going to remain a steep uphill battle in regaining any of the preseason excitement the Raiders garnished as they were voted in a tie for 1st in the Conference USA coaches poll. That said, a win on the road against dreaded rival Hilltoppers this Saturday could go a long way in both earning back goodwill as well as further boosting momentum and confidence going forward.

How can they pull off the improbable? Here are three keys for Middle Tennessee victory:

The Blue Raiders have stayed steady as one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country all season. They currently sit with a 3-point percentage of 28.2%, ranking 349th in the country (fourteenth to last). However, Middle found a way to shoot lights out last week: 9-for-19 (47.4%) vs Jacksonville State and 10-for-22 (45.5%) vs FIU. Not only were these the two highest marks of the season, but it was the first time MTSU has shot over 33% from 3 in a game since the season opener against Northern Kentucky on November 6th.

Jestin Porter and Elias King carried the load in these performances, combining for 15-for-29 from the arc over both games. Porter and King have always been the team's two most naturally gifted scorers. If they are finding the comfort zone they've been searching for all season, the Blue Raiders might be due for more games where they look more capable on offense.

The Blue Raiders also did their duty in defending the 3 last week, with Jacksonville State and FIU being held to a combined 11-for-37 (29.7%) from the arc.

Western Kentucky thus far ranks 1st in conference play in 3p%, but also 8th in opp3p%. Hilltoppers are 3-6 when they shoot worse than their opponents in 3p%; 11-1 otherwise. The Raiders having the better night beyond the arc will be essential.

MTSU and WKU currently have polar opposite approaches as it pertains to pace. Western Kentucky is the fastest team in the entire country per KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. Middle Tennessee on the other hand ranks 340th. Only 2 out of 21 Hilltopper games this season have featured less than 70 total possessions, while the Blue Raiders have YET to play in a game against a D1 opponent that contained more than 70 possessions within regulation time.

Looking closer at those two Western Kentucky contests: the first was a 10-point loss to UNCA, the other a 1-point win against Austin Peay. UNCA held WKU to their second worst 3-point efficiency of the season. Austin Peay held them to their third worst overall field goal efficiency of the season. Needless to say, the Hilltoppers do not feel as comfortable offensively in a slow-paced game. The Blue Raiders must dictate the pace to their preferred tempo in order for a chance at the upset.

Western Kentucky had a pretty successful non-conference season in Steve Lutz’s first go-round in Bowling Green, entering C-USA play 11-3 and even knocking off the preseason favorite Liberty in their first league game. Since then, the year has become more rigorous for the Hilltoppers, losing four of their last six including a heartbreaker at home to Sam Houston State Thursday night- a game in which they maintained the lead for over 85% of the 40 minutes played.

WKU is going to enter Saturday’s contest hoping to turn their conference season around. If I had to bet, I would say they are going to overlook Middle Tennessee and see this as a “get right” game. They will look at the team being 8-13 and sitting at the bottom of the conference standings and the overall metrics. If that bears to be true, the Blue Raiders might hold a very important element of surprise. MTSU will need to land the first punch of the night and get as much of a lead out of it as possible. Eventually and almost certainly they will go through one or more of their standard offensive droughts. Western will refocus and go on a run. That’s why Middle must build as big of an advantage as possible if they are fortunate enough to catch WKU sleeping in the first 10 to 15 minutes.

It is possible the Blue Raiders’ strong performances last week are more a result of who they played than how they are playing. Jacksonville State has three wins against two of the C-USA cellar dwellers within the conference standings, along with four losses by an average margin of 11 points a game. FIU is in a free-falling mode with an average margin of defeat by 20 in their last four games.

Still, there are clear statistical advantages within this matchup. Middle’s trajectory is possibly beginning to point up, while Western’s might be titling in the opposite direction. There are ingredients for the Blue Raiders to brew an upset. This would be a statement win in terms of potentially turning the season around to at least a respectable level. Crazier things have happened in this sport where the unexpected becomes ordinary on a regular basis.