On the surface, March can seem to be about the road to glory within college basketball greatness. And in some instances, it is. But for most, it's about falling short, and sometimes falling short comes down to what I like to call... paying dues. Most coaches don't go the path of former Western Kentucky coach Steve Lutz, winning their conference tournament and getting a bid to the NCAA tournament in all of their first three years as a college basketball head coach, not to mention with two different programs (Texas A&M Corpus Christi in 2022 & 2023 then Western Kentucky in 2024).

Middle Tennessee head coach Nick McDevitt's tenure in Murfreesboro is the opposite extreme of that spectrum. As we all know well, the first three seasons he was living at the bottom of the conference standings with a miserable overall record of 24-62. Since, McDevitt has gone a respectable 80-54, but still searches for his first C-USA tournament championship along with his first NCAA tournament bid as the Blue Raider head coach.

When you think about paying dues in March, Middle Tennessee has certainly done so since McDevitt was able to turn things around in 2022. In the past three completed C-USA tournaments, MTSU has lost to every eventual conference tournament winner in the semi-finals. Two of the three were losses by an extremely tight margin: a 4-point 3OT loss to UAB in 2022, and a 3-point loss to an eventual Final Four FAU team in 2023.

Although some without the context may say otherwise, its hard to paint the 2022 and 2023 outcomes as anything other than paying dues. Losing by one possession to a good team in the postseason is quite literally inevitable. It's happened to every coach and every program in college basketball history. A 3-point loss or an overtime loss could be determined by a ball bouncing an odd direction, a missed call, a player cramping and subbing out for two minutes, not getting a roll on a layup, etc... March margins are razor thin. Games can be decided by inches. It's what makes this sport and this month beautiful, and yet agonizing. Conference tournaments are never easy, and sometimes they come down to luck as much as they do performance. Reminder that former Blue Raider head coach Kermit Davis didn't make his first NCAA tournament as a Blue Raider until his 8th season. And that was as an at-large bid; Davis didn't win a conference tournament championship at MTSU until his 14th season.

I am not trying to say that MTSU fans are not allowed to be disappointed until 14 seasons of the Nick McDevitt era have elapsed without a Conference USA tournament championship. McDevitt absorbed a better program, McDevitt dug a deep hole in his first three seasons, they fell very short of 2023-24 preseason co-favorite expectations, etc etc etc... We have been there and don't need to rehash. But the lesson from the Kermit Davis years is I hope you enjoyed this season and didn't hang onto bitterness from prior years or haven't been banking all your hopes for the season on March Madness volatility.

When analyzing this 2024-2025 season, the Blue Raiders are 21-10, which converts to a .677 win percentage. If the season ended today it would be their 8th best season in terms of win percentage since 2000 and 17th best since 1970. In conference play they went 12-6 (.667), which ranks similar over the same starting points (9th and 17th respectively). All-in-all, a pretty good year when considering it within the program's history as well as the current conference standings (MTSU finished tied for 2nd; one game out of 1st).

There were a ton of fun individual player moments as well. Essam Mostafa had the program's first 30-point 20-rebound game ever. Cam Weston had the program's first 14-assist game since 1990. Jestin Porter moved into the top 25 all-time in Blue Raider points. Justin Bufford moved into the top 5 all-time in Blue Raider starts.

Don't get it twisted. Nick McDevitt and his team feel pressure to win this Conference USA tournament. I can assure you they see it as the most important stretch of the season just like you do. If they don't win it, it will be a disappointment, both within their season and the ongoing tenure of the McDevitt era. But it doesn't have to be everything. It doesn't mean the entire season was a disappointment, or the entirety of the past 7 years. There were a lot of fun moments this season, and even a lot of fun wins! I hope you savored them and didn't take them for granted. The end result means nothing without the context of the journey along the way.

Back to the matter at hand. Middle Tennessee has paid dues the last three years with some strong Conference USA tournament performances that weren't quite enough to win the whole thing. Here are the three keys for Middle Tennessee to cut down the nets in Huntsville on Saturday and reach their first NCAA tournament in eight years.

For most of the year I have harped on the idea that Middle Tennessee's biggest weakness are teams who excel in scoring with ball movement. The Blue Raiders are 0-6 to teams that assist on 55% or more of their field goals made (aka assist rate). The only two teams in Conference USA that come close to this criteria are Liberty and Louisiana Tech, who not coincidently are the only two teams Middle failed to get a win against during the conference season. Given MTSU is slotted to play La Tech in the quarterfinals on Thursday night, they will have to find a way to mitigate this problem at least once.

I have been concerned the problem is personnel based and that there is no easy fix to resolve the weakness. Middle doesn't have a go-to point-of-attack defender to give opposing point guards problems when running sets and creating offense. Counter or Weston are likely their best options; either one will have to emerge or it will take a group effort of off-ball guarding, perhaps focusing on fronting and forcing turnovers and accept some of the open looks it may create.

You always hear the "survive and advance" cliche when discussing the rigors of March Madness. Roster depth is essential in this regard, as when intensity ramps up and your top players are more accounted for by the opposing defense, you will need other players to step up and make plays. Middle Tennessee has exactly what it takes there.

The quartet of Porter, Mostafa, Weston, and Counter all had at least two 20+ point performances in league play (Middle is only one of two teams in C-USA to have four players under this criteria). You have Kamari Lands who has emerged with 11, 15, and 13 points respectively the last three games. Tre Green recently showcased some heroics at Sam Houston with 17 points and 5 3pm's. Even backup center Chris Loofe had an impressive 15 against MVC tournament runner up Bradley back in November.

The Blue Raiders have several different players who can be the hero and carry them to a victory on any given game. It may be the best thing they have going for them as a rotation in their quest through March.

I have always said college basketball is a guard's game, and I still believe that to be true, especially in Conference USA whose tournament MVP has been a guard the last seven times the event has been hosted. However, I would like to sidestep that narrative for a moment when specifically discussing the 2024-2025 Blue Raiders. And this is not to imply their guards don't matter when quite the opposite is true: the guard trio of Weston, Counter, and Porter have been integral to the Blue Raiders season. The team is 14-4 when one of the three scores 17 or more.

But this team rides on production of their star center Essam Mostafa. The Blue Raiders are 14-2 when Mostafa scores 14 or more, and just 2-6 when he scores 10 or less. They are 17-4 when he has three or more offensive rebounds, and just 1-5 when he has one or less. His 27.8 net rating in C-USA play is the third highest in the entire league. The next highest Blue Raider (of those who've played over 300 C-USA minutes) is Jlynn Counter with a... 5.0 net rating. Quite a drop off.

Narrowing the scope and analyzing the Louisiana Tech game specifically, Mostafa has not performed well against C-USA defensive player of the year Daniel Batcho. Between both contests with the Bulldogs, Mostafa averaged just 9 points and 3 rebounds (zero offensive). There is no doubt that Batcho is a tough matchup for Mostafa if not every center he defends, but Blue Raider senior big will need to find a way to persevere on Thursday night and put up some level of typical production for the Blue Raiders to advance in tournament.