October 22, 2009

Randall Thomason
GoMiddle.com Publisher

For the first time, the two schools will square off as Sun Belt Conference foes and the Blue Raiders must have a win in order to remain a factor in the league title race.

GoMiddle.com breaks down who and what to watch when the Blue Raiders and Hilltoppers tee it up.

THE BIG STATS

MT'S GROUND GAME AGAINST WKU'S GROUND GAME- The best way for MT to win the game is by shutting down the WKU ground game and force the Hilltoppers to pass. WKU is the worst passing team in the conference, but the Hilltoppers will try to establish their rushing offense, which ranks third in the league. By forcing WKU into unfavorable down and distance situations, the Blue Raider defense will have almost every variable in its favor. On the flip side, MT's ground game will be key to watch as well. The Blue Raiders have struggled to move the ball on the ground since a seaon ending injury to Phillip Tanner.

THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS- The game pits the league's two lowest ranking teams in third down offense. MT ranks eighth in the league with a conversion rate of just 30.4 percent, better only than WKU which ranks last with a conversion rate of 28.6 percent. Defensively, the edge in this category is significant toward the Blue Raiders. The WKU defense has had a terrible time stopping opponents on third down and ranks dead last in all of FBS in third down defense. If the MT offense converts third downs at a good rate against the struggling Hilltopper defense, the Blue Raiders will have a chance to hold a decisive edge in this category.

YOU'LL KNOW IT'S GOING WELL IF...

MT'S OFFENSE HAS A GOOD FIRST DRIVE- After two weeks of poor offensive production, the Blue Raiders need a shot in the arm offensively. Were the struggles against Troy and Mississippi State a product of facing stout defenses or was MT in a swoon? The answer should be evident pretty quickly after kickoff against WKU, which has one of the worst ranked defenses in college football.

WKU DOESN'T GET A BIG SPECIAL TEAMS PLAY- The Hilltoppers have kick and punt return units ranked in the upper half of the Sun Belt, one of the few areas on paper that they have an advantage over MT. If the Blue Raiders prevent WKU from popping a big return, the Hilltopper offense will have a hard time trying to drive down a long field.

YOU'LL KNOW IT'S GOING POORLY IF...

THE TURNOVER BUG BITES AGAIN- The Blue Raiders are coming off a very uncharacteristic four turnover performance against Mississippi State. Quarterback Dwight Dasher played his second straight poor game against the Bulldogs and the pressure is on him to produce with the Blue Raider offense shorthanded by key injuries. He has to do a better job protecting the ball against WKU or the Hilltoppers will have every chance to stay competitive.

MT CAN'T FINISH DRIVES- Last week, the Blue Raiders got deep inside the red zone twice only to walk away with two field goals against Mississippi State. Every trip into the scoring area that doesn't result in a touchdown will be a moral victory for a WKU defense that has been shredded this year. MT has to get touchdowns when the offense gets inside the 20. By doing that, the Raiders will not only impact the scoreboard but also the confidence level of the winless Hilltoppers.

THE NUMBERS: 64.8 percent completion percentage, 615 yards, 4 TDs, 6 INTs
WHY HE'S IMPORTANT: Jakes has emerged as WKU's best option at quarterback. He is also a threat to run the ball.
BEST CASE: Jakes has a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio and MT would love to force him into some bad decisions.
WORST CASE: Jakes poses concerns with his ability on the ground in addition to his passing. He is capable of a breakout game.

THE NUMBERS: 426 rushing yards, 6.5 yards per carry, four total touchdowns
WHY HE'S IMPORTANT: Rainey will touch the ball in a number of ways, including on kick returns. He has scored both running and receiving.
BEST CASE: The Raider defense can make victory much easier by preventing Rainey from getting good yardage on first down runs.
WORST CASE: Rainey is capable of chewing up yardage and clock, and he has big play potential on special teams.

THE NUMBERS: 8 catches for 64 yards, 1 touchdown
WHY HE'S IMPORTANT: Gaebler is a veteran presence on the WKU offense and was a key factor in WKU's 2007 win at MT.
BEST CASE: MT wants to keep Gaebler out of the endzone. He is one of just two Hilltopper wide receivers that have caught a touchdown pass this year.
WORST CASE: A big play by Gaebler early would provide a boost of confidence to WKU.

THE NUMBERS: 53 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 INT
WHY HE'S IMPORTANT: Smith is arguably the best defensive playmaker in the WKU front seven. He leads the team in stops behind the line.
BEST CASE: MT neutralizes what Smith can do by being balanced offensively, forcing linebackers to defend both run and pass.
WORST CASE: Smith has forced a fumble this year in addition to his interception. MT can't let him get his hands on the ball.

THE NUMBERS: 58 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 INT
WHY HE'S IMPORTANT: Majors teams with Smith at linebacker to lead the WKU defense.
BEST CASE: MT handles Majors on any blitzes and is able to clear him out of the way in run blocking.
WORST CASE: Majors poses a problem with his size and strength. He could be tough to run against and he has a good knack for deflecting passes.